Predicting the outcomes of management strategies for controlling invasive river fishes using individual-based models
Predicting the outcomes of management strategies for controlling invasive river fishes using individual-based models
复制标题
使用基于个体的模型预测控制入侵河流鱼类的管理策略的结果
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.13981
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Dominguez Almela V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dominguez Almela V
生物入侵对本地生物多样性的影响导致了一系列政策和管理举措，以尽量减少其影响。虽然入侵物种的管理方案包括根除和种群控制，但关于不同管理策略如何影响入侵结果的经验知识有限。（“剔除”）策略影响了虚拟的，小身体的，r选择的外来鱼的丰度和空间分布（基于Rhodeus sericeus）在三种类型的虚拟河流集水区（低/中/高分支支流配置）上进行了比较。然后将其应用于9个不同生活史特征（r-toK-selected）和扩散能力（慢/中/快）的虚拟物种，以确定策略中应用的管理努力（如淘汰率和应用的补丁数量）与其预测效果之间的权衡。它也被应用到一个真实的世界的例子中，在英格兰的大乌塞河中，IBM预测，当应用于最近殖民的补丁时，清除工作会更有效。增加淘汰率（每个补丁删除的个人的比例），其空间范围是有效的控制入侵种群，当两者都相对较高，人口灭绝predicted.The特性的9个虚拟物种的预测丰度和空间分布的变化的主要来源。没有一个物种在淘汰率低于70%时被消灭。根除在较高的淘汰率取决于扩散能力，慢扩散需要较低的速度比快速扩散，后者迅速deconized在低淘汰率。管理工作和入侵结果之间的权衡，一般来说，当中间的努力被应用到中间数量的补丁时，是最优的。在大乌塞，模型预测，管理干预措施可以限制到2045年的21%的集水区（与90%的占用没有管理）的分布。IBM预测了如何针对入侵鱼类优化管理工作，为风险评估提供了强有力的补充。我们证明，对于一系列物种的特征，扑杀可以控制，甚至消除入侵鱼类，但只有在一致的和相对较高的努力。
The effects of biological invasions on native biodiversity have resulted in a range of policy and management initiatives to minimize their impacts. Although management options for invasive species include eradication and population control, empirical knowledge is limited on how different management strategies affect invasion outcomes.An individual‐based model (IBM) was developed to predict how different removal (‘culling’) strategies affected the abundance and spatial distribution of a virtual, small‐bodied,r‐selected alien fish (based on bitterling,Rhodeus sericeus) across three types of virtual river catchments (low/intermediate/high branching tributary configurations). It was then applied to nine virtual species of varying life‐history traits (r‐toK‐selected) and dispersal abilities (slow/intermediate/fast) to identify trade‐offs between the management effort applied in the strategies (as culling rate and the number of patches it was applied to) and their predicted effects. It was also applied to a real‐world example, bitterling in the River Great Ouse, England.The IBM predicted that removal efforts were more effective when applied to recently colonized patches. Increasing the cull rate (proportion of individuals removed per patch), and its spatial extent was effective at controlling the invasive population; when both were relatively high, population eradication was predicted.The characteristics of the nine virtual species were the main source of variation in their predicted abundance and spatial distribution. No species were eradicated at cull rates below 70%. Eradication at higher cull rates depended on dispersal ability; slow dispersers required lower rates than fast dispersers, and the latter rapidly recolonized at low cull rates. The trade‐offs between management effort and the outcomes of the invasion were, generally, optimal when intermediate effort was applied to intermediate numbers of patches. In the Great Ouse, model predictions were that management interventions could restrict bitterling distribution by 2045 to 21% of the catchment (versus 90% occupancy without management).Synthesis and application. This IBM predicted how management efforts can be optimized against invasive fishes, providing a strong complement to risk assessments. We demonstrated that for a range of species' characteristics, culling can control and even eradicate invasive fish, but only if consistent and relatively high effort is applied.