Seismic Hazard Analyses From Geologic and Geomorphic Data: Current and Future Challenges
Seismic Hazard Analyses From Geologic and Geomorphic Data: Current and Future Challenges
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DOI：
10.1029/2018tc005365
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Onur, Tuna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morell, Kristin D.;Styron, Richard;Onur, Tuna
最近几次地震造成的生命损失和经济后果表明，制定抗震安全建筑法规十分重要。地震危险性的量化描述了在特定时间段内地震引起的地面震动的可能性，是建筑规范的关键组成部分，因为它有助于确保结构的设计能够承受潜在地震引起的地面震动。地质或地貌数据是最常见的地震危险性模型（概率地震危险性分析或PSHA）的重要输入，因为它们可以表征长时间间隔（数千年）发生的地震的震级，位置和类型。然而，最近的几次地震和越来越多的工作挑战了我们以前对活断层特征及其破裂行为的许多假设，这些复杂性可能难以在PSHA中准确表示。在这里，我们讨论了几个突出的挑战，周围的地质和地貌数据集经常使用的PSHA。我们讨论的主题包括如何利用古地震记录在断层滑动速率估计，理解和模拟地震复发和故障的复杂性，开发和使用的故障比例关系，并利用地形特征神秘的故障。要在这些领域取得进展，可能需要我们对断层触发、复杂破裂、地震聚集和断层缩放等过程背后的基础科学的理解。如果我们希望在未来使用PSHA准确地捕捉各种环境中的地震行为，这些主题的进展将是重要的。
The loss of life and economic consequences caused by several recent earthquakes demonstrate the importance of developing seismically safe building codes. The quantification of seismic hazard, which describes the likelihood of earthquake-induced ground shaking at a site for a specific time period, is a key component of a building code, as it helps ensure that structures are designed to withstand the ground shaking caused by a potential earthquake. Geologic or geomorphic data represent important inputs to the most common seismic hazard model (probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, or PSHAs), as they can characterize the magnitudes, locations, and types of earthquakes that occur over long intervals (thousands of years). However, several recent earthquakes and a growing body of work challenge many of our previous assumptions about the characteristics of active faults and their rupture behavior, and these complexities can be challenging to accurately represent in PSHA. Here, we discuss several of the outstanding challenges surrounding geologic and geomorphic data sets frequently used in PSHA. The topics we discuss include how to utilize paleoseismic records in fault slip rate estimates, understanding and modeling earthquake recurrence and fault complexity, the development and use of fault-scaling relationships, and characterizing enigmatic faults using topography. Making headway in these areas will likely require advancements in our understanding of the fundamental science behind processes such as fault triggering, complex rupture, earthquake clustering, and fault scaling. Progress in these topics will be important if we wish to accurately capture earthquake behavior in a variety of settings using PSHA in the future.