Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1029/2010jd014362

发表时间：

2010-12

期刊：

Journal of Geophysical Research

影响因子：

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

文献类型：

作者：

L. Oman;D. Plummer;D. Waugh;J. Austin;J. Scinocca;A. Douglass;R. Salawitch;T. Canty;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke;N. Butchart;M. Chipperfield;D. Cugnet;S. Dhomse;V. Eyring;S. Frith;S. Hardiman;D. Kinnison;J. Lamarque;E. Mancini;M. Marchand;M. Michou;O. Morgenstern;Tetsu Nakamura;J. Nielsen;D. Oliviè;G. Pitari;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;T. Shepherd;K. Shibata;R. Stolarski;H. Teyssèdre;W. Tian;Y. Yamashita;J. Ziemke

1960年至2100年平流层臭氧的演变是在14个化学气候模型的模拟中进行审查的，这些模型由规定的卤素和温室气体水平驱动。各模型普遍认为，在2000年前后，所有纬度的气柱臭氧总量达到最低值，预计在21世纪上半叶将有所增加。在21世纪下半叶，臭氧预计将继续增加，稳定，甚至根据纬度而减少。将20百帕以上和20百帕以下的部分列分开显示，这些纬度差异几乎完全是由模式对平流层下部臭氧的预测差异造成的。在所有纬度，平流层上层的臭氧在整个世纪都在增加，预计在世纪结束之前很久就会恢复到1960年的水平，尽管各模型在臭氧恢复到特定历史值的日期上存在差异。我们发现，在温室气体增加的推动下，卤素减少和高层大气温度下降，对平流层上层臭氧的增加几乎有同样的贡献。在热带低平流层，上升流的增加导致臭氧在整个世纪稳步减少，在大多数模式中，臭氧总柱没有恢复到1960年的水平。与此相反，在中高纬度地区，平流层下部臭氧和臭氧气柱总量在21世纪有所增加，在大多数模式中，早在世纪结束之前就恢复到1960年的水平。

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

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