Beat the Machine: Challenging Humans to Find a Predictive Model's "Unknown Unknowns"
Beat the Machine: Challenging Humans to Find a Predictive Model's "Unknown Unknowns"
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DOI：
10.1145/2700832
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发表时间：
2015-03-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Provost, Foster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Attenberg, Joshua;Ipeirotis, Panos;Provost, Foster
我们提出了收集数据的技术，暴露自动预测模型的错误。在某些常见的环境中，评估预测模型的传统方法往往会错过罕见但重要的错误-最重要的是，模型对其预测有信心（但错误）的情况。在这篇文章中，我们提出了一个系统，在类似游戏的设置中，要求人类识别会导致基于预测模型的系统失败的案例。这种技术在发现系统正常运行期间可能不会暴露自己的问题案例方面很有价值，并且可能包括罕见但灾难性的案例。我们描述了系统的设计，包括没有完全工作的设计迭代。特别地，该系统通过提供与预测模型的误差大小成比例的奖励来激励人类提供模型难以处理的示例。人类被要求“击败机器”，并找到自动模型（“机器”）错误的情况。实验表明，使用Beat the Machine的人类识别出的错误比发现预测模型中错误的传统技术更多，而且，事实上，他们识别出更多的错误，而机器（错误地）相信它是正确的。此外，人类识别的那些案例似乎不仅仅是离群值，而是模型完全遗漏的连贯区域。Beat the Machine识别“未知的未知”。“Beat the Machine已经被几家公司以工业规模部署。其主要影响是，企业正在改变其对评估预测模型的看法和做法。
We present techniques for gathering data that expose errors of automatic predictive models. In certain common settings, traditional methods for evaluating predictive models tend to miss rare but important errors-most importantly, cases for which the model is confident of its prediction (but wrong). In this article, we present a system that, in a game-like setting, asks humans to identify cases that will cause the predictive model-based system to fail. Such techniques are valuable in discovering problematic cases that may not reveal themselves during the normal operation of the system and may include cases that are rare but catastrophic. We describe the design of the system, including design iterations that did not quite work. In particular, the system incentivizes humans to provide examples that are difficult for the model to handle by providing a reward proportional to the magnitude of the predictive model's error. The humans are asked to "Beat the Machine" and find cases where the automatic model ("the Machine") is wrong. Experiments show that the humans using Beat the Machine identify more errors than do traditional techniques for discovering errors in predictive models, and, indeed, they identify many more errors where the machine is (wrongly) confident it is correct. Furthermore, those cases the humans identify seem to be not simply outliers, but coherent areas missed completely by the model. Beat the Machine identifies the "unknown unknowns." Beat the Machine has been deployed at an industrial scale by several companies. The main impact has been that firms are changing their perspective on and practice of evaluating predictive models.