Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy
Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy
复制标题
DOI：
10.1017/s0950268810001317
复制
发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Rizzo, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ajelli, M.;Merler, S.;Rizzo, C.
我们描述了意大利在2009年A/H1N1v流感大流行早期阶段进行的实时建模分析，以评估大流行的影响和实施的相关缓解措施的影响。报告结果还与随后可获得的流行病学监测数据进行了比较。模拟流行病与在意大利哨兵监测系统内收集的流感样综合征的估计数量相吻合，并与观察到的流行病的时间很好地吻合。根据模型预测，我们估计流感监测系统的漏报系数在3.3-3.7之间，这取决于所考虑的情景。模型预测，疫情将在11月初达到顶峰。事实证明，这些预测为公共卫生政策制定者规划干预措施以缓解大流行的传播提供了宝贵的支持。
We describe the real-time modelling analysis conducted in Italy during the early phases of the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in order to estimate the impact of the pandemic and of the related mitigation measures implemented. Results are presented along with a comparison with epidemiological surveillance data which subsequently became available. Simulated epidemics were fitted to the estimated number of influenza-like syndromes collected within the Italian sentinel surveillance systems and showed good agreement with the timing of the observed epidemic. On the basis of the model predictions, we estimated the underreporting factor of the influenza surveillance system to be in the range 3.3-3.7 depending on the scenario considered. Model prediction suggested that the epidemic would peak in early November. These predictions have proved to be a valuable support for public health policy-makers in planning interventions for mitigating the spread of the pandemic.