Meta-analysis of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 serial intervals and the impact of parameter uncertainty on the coronavirus disease 2019 reproduction number.
Meta-analysis of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 serial intervals and the impact of parameter uncertainty on the coronavirus disease 2019 reproduction number.
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DOI：
10.1177/09622802211065159
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发表时间：
2022-09
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Danon, Leon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Challen, Robert;Brooks-Pollock, Ellen;Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira;Danon, Leon
关键词：
传染病的连续间隔通常被解释为在传播链中连续感染个体出现症状之间的时间，是估计繁殖数量所涉及的一个关键流行病学量。序列间隔与其他关键量密切相关，包括潜伏期、世代间隔（连续感染之间的时间）以及感染与监测疫情（如确诊病例、住院和死亡）相关的观察之间的时间延迟。对这些数量的估计通常基于早期接触者追踪的小数据集，并且具有相当大的不确定性，对于2019年早期冠状病毒病数据尤其如此。在本文中，我们在2019年英国冠状病毒病的背景下估计了这些关键数量，包括对序列间隔早期估计的荟萃分析。我们估计序列区间的分布均值为5.9（95% CI 5.2; 6.7）和SD 4.1（95% CI 3.8; 4.7）天（经验分布），平均值为4.9的世代间隔（95% CI 4.2; 5.5）和SD 2.0（95% CI 0.5; 3.2）天（拟合伽马分布），潜伏期平均为5.2（95% CI 4.9; 5.5）和SD 5.5（95% CI 5.1; 5.9）天（拟合对数正态分布）。当采取务实和更正式的方法时，我们量化了序列间隔、世代间隔、潜伏期和时间延迟的不确定性对随后估计繁殖数量的影响。这些估计值为大多数相关模型参数的估计值设定了经验界限，预计将有助于对2019年冠状病毒病传播进行建模。
The serial interval of an infectious disease, commonly interpreted as the time between the onset of symptoms in sequentially infected individuals within a chain of transmission, is a key epidemiological quantity involved in estimating the reproduction number. The serial interval is closely related to other key quantities, including the incubation period, the generation interval (the time between sequential infections), and time delays between infection and the observations associated with monitoring an outbreak such as confirmed cases, hospital admissions, and deaths. Estimates of these quantities are often based on small data sets from early contact tracing and are subject to considerable uncertainty, which is especially true for early coronavirus disease 2019 data. In this paper, we estimate these key quantities in the context of coronavirus disease 2019 for the UK, including a meta-analysis of early estimates of the serial interval. We estimate distributions for the serial interval with a mean of 5.9 (95% CI 5.2; 6.7) and SD 4.1 (95% CI 3.8; 4.7) days (empirical distribution), the generation interval with a mean of 4.9 (95% CI 4.2; 5.5) and SD 2.0 (95% CI 0.5; 3.2) days (fitted gamma distribution), and the incubation period with a mean 5.2 (95% CI 4.9; 5.5) and SD 5.5 (95% CI 5.1; 5.9) days (fitted log-normal distribution). We quantify the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the serial interval, generation interval, incubation period, and time delays, on the subsequent estimation of the reproduction number, when pragmatic and more formal approaches are taken. These estimates place empirical bounds on the estimates of most relevant model parameters and are expected to contribute to modeling coronavirus disease 2019 transmission.
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Cobey S