Climatic Variations in the East European Plain During the Last Millennium: State of the Art
Climatic Variations in the East European Plain During the Last Millennium: State of the Art
复制标题
上个千年东欧平原的气候变化：最新技术
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
O. Solomina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Klimenko;O. Solomina
讨论了基于历史数据、孢粉学、树木年轮分析、钻孔温度测量和湖泊沉积物的东欧平原上千年年、夏季、冬季温度和年降水量总和的高分辨率重建。这些参数的第一次多代理定量重建主要考虑了足够长度和质量的历史和孢粉学记录。它显示了上个千年气温的负线性趋势，而在二十世纪，这些趋势突然转变为年气温和冬季气温的正线性趋势。无论是从仪器记录还是基于代理的重建来看，二十世纪东欧平原的夏季变暖都没有明显的迹象。将东欧平原年温度重建结果与北半球高分辨率温度重建结果进行比较。在多代理重建中没有发现东欧平原年降水量的千年趋势。讨论了不同类型记录中错误、偏见和分歧的潜在来源。
High resolution last millennium reconstructions of annual, summer, winter temperature and sum of annual precipitation for the East European Plain based on the historical data, palynology, tree-ring analyses, borehole temperature measurements and lake sediments are discussed. The first multiproxy quantitative reconstruction of these parameters takes into account mostly historical and palynological records of suffice length and quality. It shows the negative linear trends in air temperature in the last millennium, while in the twentieth century these trends abruptly changed to the positive ones in annual and winter temperature. No sign of summer warming in the twentieth century in the East European Plain is evident either from instrumental records or from proxy-based reconstructions. The results of the annual temperature reconstruction in the East European Plain are compared with the high resolution temperature reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere. No millennium-long trend in annual precipitation in the East European Plain is identified in the multi-proxy reconstruction. Potential sources of errors, biases, and disagreement in different kinds of records are discussed.