Historical Drought Events in the Early Years of Qing Dynasty in Shanxi Based on Hydrological Reconstructions
Historical Drought Events in the Early Years of Qing Dynasty in Shanxi Based on Hydrological Reconstructions
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DOI：
10.3390/w15050995
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发表时间：
2023-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Yanping Qu;Xuejun Zhang;J. Zeng;Zhe Li;J. Lv
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yanping Qu;Xuejun Zhang;J. Zeng;Zhe Li;J. Lv
干旱是严重的自然灾害，对水资源、农业、经济和环境造成不利影响。重建历史干旱记录对于评估干旱的影响及其演变是必要的，并已成为支持和改进可持续水资源管理决策的最优先事项。本研究以山西省为研究区域，利用历史雨雪资料重建了清代光绪初年的气象资料。可变入渗能力(VIC)模型是由历史气象资料的重建驱动的。模拟了研究区1875年至1879年的月径流和土壤水分序列，在没有资料的情况下再现了古代历史时期的水文和土壤。研究结果表明：(1)利用历史数据重建水文参数的思路是可行的，VIC模型可以用于特定情景下的干旱特征研究。(2)1875年至1879年，山西境内径流深度小于10 mm的区域所占比例分别为55%、48%、58%、19%和30%。1875年至1877年，各地区年径流深度均小于60 mm。1875年至1877年间的水文旱情十分严重，旱情覆盖面积较大。(3)1875~1879年，各地区年平均土壤含水率稳定在150~510 mm之间。土壤水分年际变化不明显。土壤含水率低于180 mm的面积占比高达31%。该研究为古旱灾研究提供了新思路，为区域防旱减灾和水资源管理提供了科学依据，保证了农业生产活动的有序进行。
Droughts are serious natural disasters that adversely affect water resources, agriculture, the economy, and the environment. Reconstructing historical drought records is necessary to assess the impact of droughts and their evolution and has become a top priority to support and improve sustainable water management decisions. In this study, we used Shanxi Province as the research area, and meteorological data from the early years of Guangxu in the Qing Dynasty were reconstructed using historical rain and snow records. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is driven by the reconstruction of historical meteorological data. The study area’s monthly runoff and soil water sequence from 1875 to 1879 were simulated, and the hydrology and soil of the ancient historical period were reproduced in the absence of data. The results show the following: (1) The idea of reconstructing hydrological parameters using historical data is feasible and the VIC model can be used to study drought characteristics under specific scenarios. (2) The proportions of areas with runoff depths less than 10 mm throughout Shanxi from 1875 to 1879 were 55%, 48%, 58%, 19%, and 30%. The annual runoff depth in each region from 1875 to 1877 was less than 60 mm. The hydrological drought from 1875 to 1877 was very serious, and the area covered by the drought was relatively large. (3) The annual average soil water content of various regions was stable between 150 and 510 mm from 1875 to 1879. The soil water content had no apparent interannual variation. The area with soil water content less than 180 mm accounted for ratios as high as 31%. This research provides new ideas for ancient drought research and a scientific basis for regional drought prevention, mitigation, and water resources management, and ensures the orderly progress of agricultural production activities.