Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink
Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0
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发表时间：
2020-12-07
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Wu, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Loisel, J.;Gallego-Sala, A., V;Wu, J.
泥炭地受到气候和土地利用变化的影响，通过充当碳源或碳汇而反馈到变暖。专家启发与文献综述相结合，揭示了改变泥炭地碳动态变化的关键驱动因素，并对改进模型产生影响。预计泥炭地的碳平衡将在本世纪从汇向源转变。然而，用于未来气候变化预测的主要地球系统模型仍然忽略了泥炭地生态系统，影响和缓解研究中使用的综合评估模型也没有考虑泥炭地生态系统。通过使用从文献和专家启发合成的证据，我们定义和量化的变化的主要驱动因素，影响泥炭地碳储量在全新世，并预测其影响在本世纪和遥远的未来。我们还确定了科学界的不确定性和知识差距，并为更好地将泥炭地整合到建模框架中提供了见解。鉴于泥炭地对全球碳循环的重要贡献，这项研究表明，泥炭地科学是一个关键的研究领域，我们还有很长的路要走，以充分了解泥炭地-碳-气候关系。
Peatlands are impacted by climate and land-use changes, with feedback to warming by acting as either sources or sinks of carbon. Expert elicitation combined with literature review reveals key drivers of change that alter peatland carbon dynamics, with implications for improving models.The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland-carbon-climate nexus.