Bayesian local influence analysis of skew-normal spatial dynamic panel data models

Bayesian local influence analysis of skew-normal spatial dynamic panel data models
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偏态正态空间动态面板数据模型的贝叶斯局部影响分析

DOI:
10.1080/00949655.2018.1462813
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发表时间:
2018-04
影响因子:
1.2
通讯作者:
Li Xiaoxia
Li Xiaoxia
中科院分区:
数学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Ju Yuanyuan;Tang Niansheng;Li Xiaoxia

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现有的空间动态面板数据模型的研究主要集中在响应变量和随机效应的正态假设上。这种假设在某些应用中可能是不合适的。本文在假设响应变量和随机效应服从多元偏态分布的基础上,提出了一种新的SDDM模型。将Gibbs采样器和Metropolis-Hastings算法相结合,提出了一种马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法来估计斜正态SDPDM中未知参数和随机效应的贝叶斯估计。提出了一种贝叶斯局部影响分析方法,用于同时评估微小扰动对数据、先验分布和样本分布的影响。通过仿真研究了所提方法在有限样本下的性能。文中给出了一个应用实例。
The existing studies on spatial dynamic panel data model (SDPDM) mainly focus on the normality assumption of response variables and random effects. This assumption may be inappropriate in some applications. This paper proposes a new SDPDM by assuming that response variables and random effects follow the multivariate skew-normal distribution. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to evaluate Bayesian estimates of unknown parameters and random effects in skew-normal SDPDM by combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. A Bayesian local influence analysis method is developed to simultaneously assess the effect of minor perturbations to the data, priors and sampling distributions. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite-sample performance of the proposed methodologies. An example is illustrated by the proposed methodologies.
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