The effect of population heterogeneities upon spread of infection
The effect of population heterogeneities upon spread of infection
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00285-012-0578-x
复制
发表时间：
2013-10-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Pearce, Christopher J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clancy, Damian;Pearce, Christopher J.
人们经常观察到，群体异质性可能导致感染爆发的频率和严重程度低于同质群体模型所建议的水平。我们通过将包含各种形式的异质性的模型与根据基本再生数的值匹配的同质化模型进行比较来解决这个问题。我们主要关注个体传染性和易感性的异质性，尽管也允许异质混合模式。我们考虑的传染性传播衡量标准是 (i) 发生重大疫情的可能性； (ii) 平均爆发规模； (iii) 平均地方流行率； (iv) 持续时间。对于每项措施，我们都建立了异质性导致感染传播减少的条件。我们还证明，如果不满足这些条件，则可能会发生相反的情况。除了与同质群体进行比较之外，我们还研究了不同程度异质性的两个异质群体之间的比较。我们所有的结果都是在易感人群足够大的假设下得出的。
It has often been observed that population heterogeneities can lead to outbreaks of infection being less frequent and less severe than homogeneous population models would suggest. We address this issue by comparing a model incorporating various forms of heterogeneity with a homogenised model matched according to the value of the basic reproduction number . We mainly focus upon heterogeneity in individuals' infectivity and susceptibility, though with some allowance also for heterogeneous patterns of mixing. The measures of infectious spread we consider are (i) the probability of a major outbreak; (ii) the mean outbreak size; (iii) the mean endemic prevalence level; and (iv) the persistence time. For each measure, we establish conditions under which heterogeneity leads to a reduction in infectious spread. We also demonstrate that if such conditions are not satisfied, the reverse may occur. As well as comparison with a homogeneous population, we investigate comparisons between two heterogeneous populations of differing degrees of heterogeneity. All of our results are derived under the assumption that the susceptible population is sufficiently large.