Impact of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation on visceral leishmaniasis, Brazil
Impact of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation on visceral leishmaniasis, Brazil
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DOI：
10.3201/eid0809.010523
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发表时间：
2002-09-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Latif, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Franke, CR;Ziller, M;Latif, M
我们使用时间序列分析和线性回归，以调查之间的关系，每年的尼诺-3指数从1980年至1998年和内脏利什曼病（VL）的年发病率在巴西的巴伊亚州，在1985年至1999年。在厄尔尼诺后的1989年（+38.7%）和1995年（+33.5%），观察到VL发病率增加。回归模型表明，前一年的平均尼诺-3指数和时间趋势占约50%的变异在巴伊亚VL的年发病率。该模型与真实的数据一致，因为只分析了厄尔尼诺对VL周期的影响。结果表明，这种关系可以用来预测高风险年VL，从而有助于减少在巴西的易感地区的健康影响。
We used time-series analysis and linear regression to investigate the relationship between the annual Nino-3 index from 1980 to 1998 and the annual incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the State of Bahia, Brazil, during 1985-1999. An increase in VL incidence was observed in the post-El Nino years 1989 (+38.7%) and 1995 (+33.5%). The regression model demonstrates that the previous year's mean Nino-3 index and the temporal trend account for approximately 50% of the variance in the annual incidence of VL in Bahia. The model shows a robust agreement with the real data, as only the influence of El Nino on the cycle of VL was analyzed. The results suggest that this relationship could be used to predict high-risk years for VL and thus help reduce health impact in susceptible regions in Brazil.