Communication of ambiguous risk information
Communication of ambiguous risk information
复制标题
模糊风险信息的传达
DOI：
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发表时间：
1991
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Joel Huber
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Viscusi;W. Magat;Joel Huber
本文报道了646个个体对不同形式的风险模糊的环境风险信息的反应。收到一套以上风险信息的人并不是简单地将所提供的风险水平平均化。相反，所传达的风险性质的各个方面影响了他们的概率信念。个人对所面临风险水平的认识可能更高：（i）对于更模糊的风险，（ii）对于最后提出不利风险证据的风险，即使没有时间顺序，（iii）对于最近进行了最不利风险研究的风险，及（iv）风险不明确性中存在不对称性的风险，从而带来重大潜在下行风险。虽然这些影响对于中位个体来说是适度的，但只反映所提供的最不利或最有利的信息的极端反应的可能性是相当普遍的。这些研究结果更普遍的意义在于，它们表明了个体如何在风险模糊的情况下形成他们的风险感知。
This paper reports on the responses of 646 individuals to environmental risk information involving different forms of risk ambiguity. Recipients of more than one set of risk information do not simply average the risk levels provided. Rather, a variety of aspects of the nature of the risks that are communicated influence their probabilistic beliefs. Individuals' perceptions of the risk levels to which they are exposed are likely to be greater: (i) for more ambiguous risks, (ii) for risks for which the unfavorable risk evidence is presented last even when there is no temporal order, (iii) for risks for which the most unfavorable risk studies have been performed most recently, and (iv) for risks where there is asymmetry in the risk ambiguity that imposes substantial potential downside risks. Although these effects are modest for the median individual, the potential for extreme responses that reflect only the most adverse or the most favorable piece of information provided is quite prevalent. These findings are of interest more generally in that they indicate how individuals form their risk perceptions in the presence of risk ambiguity.