A MATHEMATICAL-MODEL FOR THE GLOBAL SPREAD OF INFLUENZA
A MATHEMATICAL-MODEL FOR THE GLOBAL SPREAD OF INFLUENZA
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DOI：
10.1016/0025-5564(85)90064-1
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发表时间：
1985-01-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
LONGINI, IM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
RVACHEV, LA;LONGINI, IM
提出了一个用于预测流感全球传播的数学模型，该模型基于经历该疾病的交通网络中初始城市的信息。这个模型代表了苏联近20年来在苏联和保加利亚对流感地理传播进行模拟的工作的自然延伸。然而，本文提出的工作是在全球范围内应用这些方法的第一次尝试。给出了模型公式的描述和关键参数的估计方法。然后，根据来自香港的估计参数，该模型被应用于预测1968-1969年香港大流行的全球传播，香港是第一个报告当时出现的新甲型流感病毒株的城市。预测结果表明，该预测再现了世卫组织来源记录的实际疫情的一般时空传播。
A mathematical model is presented for forecasting the global spread of influenza based on information from the initial city in the transportation network to experience the disease. This model represents the natural extension of nearly 20 yr of Soviet work on modeling the geographic spread of influenza in the USSR and Bulgaria. However, the work presented in this paper is the 1st attempt at applying the methods on a global scale. A description of the model formulation is given along with a method for estimating critical parameters. The model is then applied to forecasting the global spread of the Hong Kong pandemic of 1968-1969 based on estimated parameters from Hong Kong, the initial city to report the appearance of the then new strain of influenza A. The forecast is shown to reproduce the general time-space spread of the actual epidemic as documented by WHO sources.