Impact of aircraft lifetime change on lifecycle CO2 emissions and costs in Japan
Impact of aircraft lifetime change on lifecycle CO2 emissions and costs in Japan
复制标题
日本飞机寿命变化对生命周期二氧化碳排放和成本的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107104
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
M. Kito
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Kito
航空业的二氧化碳排放量迅速增加; 2019年，航空运输排放的二氧化碳约占全球燃料燃烧排放量的2.8%。本研究以日本为中心，探讨了引进新型客机作为二氧化碳减排政策的问题。为此，确定了客机的寿命分布函数。然后估计了1965年至2019年期间的二氧化碳排放量和相关成本。结果表明，单通道飞机遵循瑞利分布，平均值为13.42，而双通道飞机遵循正态分布，平均值为19.82。生命周期CO2排放的减排潜力为28.2 Mt。通过延长单通道飞机的使用寿命+11年和缩短双通道飞机的使用寿命-8年，使其寿命超过55年。如果飞机入流的平均燃料强度稳步提高，则缩短的寿命和引入更省油的飞机有助于减少生命周期的二氧化碳排放。然而，与生命周期CO2减排相关的成本为940亿美元，航空公司需要支付3400美元才能减少一个单位的CO2排放。总之，引进新飞机作为减少二氧化碳排放的政策是成本效益不高的，航空公司需要转向成本较低的替代品。
Airline industry CO2emissions have increased rapidly; air transportation released approximately 2.8% of global fuel-combustion-based CO2emissions in 2019. Focusing on Japan, this study explored the introduction of new passenger aircraft as a CO2-reduction policy. To this end, the lifetime distribution function for passenger aircraft was specified. Lifecycle CO2emissions and the associated costs between 1965 and 2019 were then estimated. The results showed that single-aisle aircraft followed a Rayleigh distribution with a mean of 13.42, while twin-aisle aircraft followed a normal distribution with a mean of 19.82. The reduction potential of lifecycle CO2emissions is 28.2 Mt. over 55 years by extending the lifetime +11 years of single-aisle aircraft and shortening the lifetime −8 years of twin-aisle aircraft. If the average fuel intensity of aircraft inflow improves steadily, the shortened lifetime and introduction of more fuel-efficient aircraft contribute to a decrease in lifecycle CO2emissions. However, the cost associated with the lifecycle CO2emission reductions is USD 94.0 billion, and airlines need to pay USD 3.4 thousand to reduce CO2emissions by one unit. In sum, the introduction of new aircraft was shown to be cost-ineffective as a CO2-reduction policy, and airlines need to switch to less costly alternatives.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Kito, Minami;Nagashima, Fumiya;Nansai, Keisuke
通讯作者：
Nansai, Keisuke