Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method
Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method
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DOI：
10.1029/2011gl048155
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发表时间：
2011-08-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Main, Ian G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bell, Andrew F.;Naylor, Mark;Main, Ian G.
如若干理论模型所预测的，在材料破坏现象之前，包括火山爆发、滑坡和实验室变形实验，普遍报告了平均应变率、地震和其他前兆的幂律加速。故障预测方法（FFM），线性化的幂律趋势，已被常规用于预测故障时间的回顾性分析，但是，其性能从来没有被正式评估。在这里，我们使用合成和真实的数据，记录在实验室脆性蠕变实验和火山，表明的假设的实况调查是不一致的错误结构的数据，导致偏见和不精确的预测。我们发现，广义线性模型方法提供了更高质量的预测，更准确地收敛到最终的故障时间，占适当的误差分布。应采用这种方法来代替实况调查，以提供可靠的定量预测，并估计其相关的不确定性。引用：Bell，A. F.、M.内勒，M. J·希普和我。G. Main（2011），Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomenon：An evaluation of the failure prediction method，Geophys.保留信函：38，L15304，doi：10.1029/2011GL048155。
Power-law accelerations in the mean rate of strain, earthquakes and other precursors have been widely reported prior to material failure phenomena, including volcanic eruptions, landslides and laboratory deformation experiments, as predicted by several theoretical models. The Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which linearizes the power-law trend, has been routinely used to forecast the failure time in retrospective analyses; however, its performance has never been formally evaluated. Here we use synthetic and real data, recorded in laboratory brittle creep experiments and at volcanoes, to show that the assumptions of the FFM are inconsistent with the error structure of the data, leading to biased and imprecise forecasts. We show that a Generalized Linear Model method provides higher-quality forecasts that converge more accurately to the eventual failure time, accounting for the appropriate error distributions. This approach should be employed in place of the FFM to provide reliable quantitative forecasts and estimate their associated uncertainties. Citation: Bell, A. F., M. Naylor, M. J. Heap, and I. G. Main (2011), Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15304, doi:10.1029/2011GL048155.