Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
复制标题
共享社会经济路径下未来城市土地扩张的全球预测
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x
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发表时间：
2020-01-27
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Huang, Kangning
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chen, Guangzhao;Li, Xia;Huang, Kangning
尽管城市土地面积小，但城市土地及其扩张对全球环境产生了深远的影响。在这里，我们提出了全球城市土地扩张的情景预测的框架下，共享的社会经济路径（SSP）。我们的投影具有1公里的精细空间分辨率，以保留空间细节。预测显示，尽管全球城市土地在2040年代之前继续迅速扩张，但中国和许多其他亚洲国家预计在2050年代之后将面临城市人口减少的巨大压力。大约50-63%的新扩建城市土地预计将出现在目前的农田上。全球农作物产量将下降约1- 4%，对应于1.22 - 13.89亿人的某种作物的年粮食需求。这些研究结果强调了管理城市土地开发作为减轻其对粮食生产的负面影响的关键措施的重要性。
Despite its small land coverage, urban land and its expansion have exhibited profound impacts on global environments. Here, we present the scenario projections of global urban land expansion under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our projections feature a fine spatial resolution of 1 km to preserve spatial details. The projections reveal that although global urban land continues to expand rapidly before the 2040s, China and many other Asian countries are expected to encounter substantial pressure from urban population decline after the 2050s. Approximately 50–63% of the newly expanded urban land is expected to occur on current croplands. Global crop production will decline by approximately 1–4%, corresponding to the annual food needs for a certain crop of 122–1389 million people. These findings stress the importance of governing urban land development as a key measure to mitigate its negative impacts on food production.