Scientific inference and experiment in Ecosystem Based Fishery Management, with application to Steller sea lions in the Bering Sea and Western Gulf of Alaska
Scientific inference and experiment in Ecosystem Based Fishery Management, with application to Steller sea lions in the Bering Sea and Western Gulf of Alaska
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.marpol.2010.01.005
复制
发表时间：
2010-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Mangel, Marc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mangel, Marc
了解生态系统过程和模式是基于生态系统的渔业管理和自然资源可持续利用的重要组成部分。目前，这种学习通常通过适应性管理（被动或主动）或管理策略评估来完成，对此进行了解释。澳大利亚西北部适应性管理的一个例子显示了管理实验的优点和局限性，并提出了如何学习实验不可行的问题。适应性管理和管理策略评估都是科学推理的例子，这是哈罗德·杰弗里斯爵士在近 80 年前提出的想法。有了足够的变异，即使不是通过受控实验，也可以通过机械模型与统计方法相结合来进行科学推论；最近提出的“适应性监测”范式是科学推理的另一个例子。回顾了白令海和阿留申群岛北海狮的衰退情况，其中包括同时比较了 10 个有关衰退的假设的唯一著作。结论是，利用机械模型和栖息地层面的精细数据进行科学推断可以提供有关渔业、鱼类种群和北海狮相互作用的有用信息。 (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Learning about ecosystem processes and patterns is an essential component of Ecosystem Based Fishery Management and the sustainable use of natural resources.Currently, such learning is usually done through adaptive management (passive or active) or Management Strategy Evaluation, which are explained. An example of adaptive management in northwestern Australia shows the strengths and limitations of management experiments and raises the question of how to learn if an experiment is not practicable. Both adaptive management and Management Strategy Evaluation are examples of scientific inference, an idea introduced by Sir Harold Jeffreys nearly 80 years ago. With sufficient variation, even if it is not through controlled experiments, scientific inference is possible by combining mechanistic models with statistical methods; the recently proposed paradigm of 'adaptive monitoring' is another case of scientific inference. The decline of Steller sea lions in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands is reviewed, including the only work in which 10 hypotheses concerning the decline were simultaneously compared. It is concluded that scientific inference using mechanistic models and fine scale data at the level of the rookery can provide useful information about the interactions of fisheries, fish populations, and Steller sea lions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.