Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms
Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms
复制标题
人为对龙卷风暴的影响
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0901.1
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
W. Gallus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Bercos‐Hickey;C. Patricola;W. Gallus
气候变化对严重风暴和龙卷风的影响仍然不确定，主要原因是观测数据不一致和气候模型的局限性。我们进行了允许对流的气候模式模拟合奏，以研究如何三个龙卷风风暴会发生变化，如果类似的事件发生在工业化前和未来的气候。事件的选择包括冬季，夜间和春季龙卷风风暴，以了解风暴的时间和季节性如何影响它们对气候变化的反应。利用上升气流螺旋度（UH）、对流有效位能（CAPE）、风暴相对螺旋度（SRH）和对流抑制（CIN）分析了不同气候状态下3次龙卷风的可预报性。我们发现，从工业化前到现在，潜在的龙卷风风暴减少在冬季事件和增加在夜间和春季事件。随着未来的气候变化，潜在的龙卷风风暴增加，在冬季和夜间事件与CAPE增加，并减少在春季事件，尽管更大的CAPE。
The impact of climate change on severe storms and tornadoes remains uncertain, largely owing to inconsistencies in observational data and limitations of climate models. We performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. The choice of events includes winter, nocturnal, and spring tornadic storms to provide insight into how the timing and seasonality of storms may affect their response to climate change. Updraft helicity (UH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), and convective inhibition (CIN) were used to determine the favorability for the three tornadic storm events in the different climate states. We found that from the pre-industrial to present, the potential for tornadic storms decreased in the winter event and increased in the nocturnal and spring events. With future climate change, the potential for tornadic storms increased in the winter and nocturnal events in association with increased CAPE, and decreased in the spring event despite greater CAPE.