EV market development pathways — An application of System Dynamics for policy simulation
EV market development pathways — An application of System Dynamics for policy simulation
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电动汽车市场发展路径——系统动力学在政策模拟中的应用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Fichtner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jonatan J. Gómez Vilchez;P. Jochem;W. Fichtner
运输部门，特别是公路运输，是能源的主要消耗者，也是温室气体排放的主要来源，助长了气候变化。减少乘用汽车的CO2排放的压力越来越大（例如，在欧盟，法规（EC）No 443/2009将新乘用汽车的CO2排放限制设定为从2020年起95 g CO2 [1]）。今天，全球汽车库存超过10亿辆，几乎完全依赖石油能源。根据各种预测，到2050年，全球车辆数量可能增加一倍甚至两倍。这种增加对能源和环境的影响是不可忽视的。在这方面，有人认为，全球车队的电气化是一个可取的目标。电动汽车（EV）预计将有助于实现关键的能源和环境目标，从而减少石油进口，提高能源独立性并减少二氧化碳排放。本文重点介绍了主要经合组织国家以及中国和印度的电动汽车市场渗透率，考虑了轻型乘用车（PLDV）的各种车辆技术。特别是，本文研究了电动汽车对石油需求和二氧化碳排放的影响，在各种情景下，直到2050年。为此，系统动力学（SD）模型的开发和各种模拟评估的结果。该模型的输出包括电动汽车未来可能的市场份额以及其具体的能源和环境影响。我们的研究结果显示了电动汽车在2030年以后可以在多大程度上减少对石油的依赖和二氧化碳排放。
The transport sector, in particular road transport, is a major consumer of energy and a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing to climate change. There is increasing pressure to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars (e.g. in the EU, the Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 sets the limit of CO2 emissions of new passenger cars to 95 g of CO2 from 2020 [1]). Today, the global vehicle stock has more than 1 billion units and relies almost entirely on oil-based energy. According to various projections, the global vehicle fleet could double or even triple by 2050. The energy and environmental implications of such increase would not be negligible. In this context, it is argued that the electrification of the global vehicle fleet emerges as a desirable goal. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to help meet key energy and environmental goals, leading to a decrease in oil imports, an increase in energy independency and to a decrease in CO2 emissions. This paper focuses on the EV market penetration in key OECD countries as well as in China and India, considering various vehicle technologies for passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDVs). In particular, the paper investigates the impacts of EVs on oil demand and CO2 emissions in the countries of interest under various scenarios until 2050. For this purpose, a System Dynamics (SD) model is developed and the results of various simulations assessed. The output of the model includes possible future market shares of EVs as well as their specific energy and environmental impacts. Our results show to what extent EVs can potentially contribute to reduce oil dependency andCO2 emissions in the countries analysed beyond 2030.