Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients
Ocean community warming responses explained by thermal affinities and temperature gradients
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0631-5
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Poloczanska, Elvira S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Burrows, Michael T.;Bates, Amanda E.;Poloczanska, Elvira S.
随着海洋温度的上升，物种分布正朝着历史上较冷的地区发展，这与它们的热亲和力一致（1，2）。然而，物种对变暖和物种相互作用变化的不同反应使得预测生物多样性再分布和相对丰度成为一项挑战（3，4）。在这里，我们使用三十年的鱼类和浮游生物调查数据来评估变暖如何改变暖亲和性和冷亲和性物种的相对优势（5，6）。温度稳定的地区（例如，东北太平洋和墨西哥湾）的优势结构变化不大，而变暖的地区（例如，北大西洋）则向暖水物种优势转变。重要的是，社区的物种池有不同的热亲和力和较窄的范围内的耐热性表现出更大的敏感性，从模拟预期。在温度深度梯度大的地区，鱼类群落的组成变化小于预期。在那里，物种通过向更深处移动（2，7）而不是水平移动来跟踪温度，类似于陆地植物的海拔变化（8）。因此，温度成为海洋系统变化的一个基本驱动力，在最迅速变暖的地区，使用基于物种热亲和力的指标，可以预测社区的重组。这种现成和可预测的主导地位转移表明，这些社区对气候变化的适应能力有很强的预测能力。
As ocean temperatures rise, species distributions are tracking towards historically cooler regions in line with their thermal affinity(1,2). However, different responses of species to warming and changed species interactions make predicting biodiversity redistribution and relative abundance a challenge(3,4). Here, we use three decades of fish and plankton survey data to assess how warming changes the relative dominance of warm-affinity and cold-affinity species(5,6). Regions with stable temperatures (for example, the Northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico) show little change in dominance structure, while areas with warming (for example, the North Atlantic) see strong shifts towards warm-water species dominance. Importantly, communities whose species pools had diverse thermal affinities and a narrower range of thermal tolerance showed greater sensitivity, as anticipated from simulations. The composition of fish communities changed less than expected in regions with strong temperature depth gradients. There, species track temperatures by moving deeper(2,7), rather than horizontally, analogous to elevation shifts in land plants(8). Temperature thus emerges as a fundamental driver for change in marine systems, with predictable restructuring of communities in the most rapidly warming areas using metrics based on species thermal affinities. The ready and predictable dominance shifts suggest a strong prognosis of resilience to climate change for these communities.