Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease
Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease
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DOI：
10.5194/bg-11-1461-2014
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
VanReken, T. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, R.;Duhl, T.;VanReken, T. M.
暴露于生物气溶胶过敏原如花粉可导致敏感人群过敏性气道疾病（AAD）的加重，从而引起严重的公共卫生问题。通过将空气传播的花粉水平、可吸入致敏物质的浓度和人类在当前和未来气候条件下的过敏反应联系起来来评估这些健康影响，是制定预防和适应行动的关键一步。为此，开发了一个区域尺度的花粉排放和运输建模框架，将致敏花粉作为非反应性示踪剂耦合天气研究和预报社区多尺度空气质量（WRF/CMAQ）建模系统。模拟器的时间和大小的花粉季节（STaMPS）模型被用来生成一个每日花粉池，然后可以被风排放到大气中。STaMPS是由特定物种的气象（温度和/或降水）阈值条件驱动，并设计为灵活的植被物种和植物功能类型（PFT）的代表。通过考虑花粉池、摩擦速度和风阈值，对每小时花粉排放通量进行了参数化。根据花粉粒的大小和密度估算了每种花粉的干沉降速度。2010年3月至6月期间，对南加州（美国）的花粉建模框架进行了评估。这一时期与南加州大学儿童健康研究（CHS）的观察结果相吻合，其中包括O-3，PM2.5和花粉计数，以及研究参与者呼出的一氧化氮的测量。两个嵌套域的水平分辨率为12和4公里，6个代表过敏性花粉属：桦树，核桃树，桑葚，橄榄树，橡树，和雀麦草。根据目前的参数化方案，建模框架往往低估核桃和峰值橡树花粉浓度，并往往高估草花粉浓度。该模型与观察到的桦树，橄榄，桑葚花粉浓度显示出合理的协议。敏感性研究表明，花粉池的估计是模拟花粉浓度的不确定性的主要来源。实现协议之间的排放模型和观测模式的花粉释放是成功的花粉浓度模拟的关键。
Exposure to bioaerosol allergens such as pollen can cause exacerbations of allergenic airway disease (AAD) in sensitive populations, and thus cause serious public health problems. Assessing these health impacts by linking the airborne pollen levels, concentrations of respirable allergenic material, and human allergenic response under current and future climate conditions is a key step toward developing preventive and adaptive actions. To that end, a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework was developed that treats allergenic pollens as non-reactive tracers within the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) modeling system. The Simulator of the Timing and Magnitude of Pollen Season (STaMPS) model was used to generate a daily pollen pool that can then be emitted into the atmosphere by wind. The STaMPS is driven by species-specific meteorological (temperature and/or precipitation) threshold conditions and is designed to be flexible with respect to its representation of vegetation species and plant functional types (PFTs). The hourly pollen emission flux was parameterized by considering the pollen pool, friction velocity, and wind threshold values. The dry deposition velocity of each species of pollen was estimated based on pollen grain size and density. An evaluation of the pollen modeling framework was conducted for southern California (USA) for the period from March to June 2010. This period coincided with observations by the University of Southern California's Children's Health Study (CHS), which included O-3, PM2.5, and pollen count, as well as measurements of exhaled nitric oxide in study participants. Two nesting domains with horizontal resolutions of 12 and 4 km were constructed, and six representative allergenic pollen genera were included: birch tree, walnut tree, mulberry tree, olive tree, oak tree, and brome grasses. Under the current parameterization scheme, the modeling framework tends to underestimate walnut and peak oak pollen concentrations, and tends to overestimate grass pollen concentrations. The model shows reasonable agreement with observed birch, olive, and mulberry tree pollen concentrations. Sensitivity studies suggest that the estimation of the pollen pool is a major source of uncertainty for simulated pollen concentrations. Achieving agreement between emission modeling and observed pattern of pollen releases is the key for successful pollen concentration simulations.