A stochastic, evolutionary model for range shifts and richness on tropical elevational gradients under Quaternary glacial cycles
A stochastic, evolutionary model for range shifts and richness on tropical elevational gradients under Quaternary glacial cycles
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2010.0293
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发表时间：
2010-11-27
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Rangel, Thiago F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colwell, Robert K.;Rangel, Thiago F.
第四纪冰川-间冰期循环反复迫使热带地区在所有纬度的山坡上起伏。虽然没有人怀疑这些温度周期在当代地理和生物学模式上留下了它们的印记，但生态学和进化的相对作用还没有得到很好的理解，特别是在热带地区。为了探索关键机制及其相互作用的背景下，偶然事件，我们构建了一个地理范围为基础的随机模拟模型，包括物种形成，anagenetic进化，生态位保守性，范围的变化和排斥下晚第四纪温度循环沿着热带海拔梯度。在该模型中，海拔模式的物种丰富度产生的创始人血统的差异生存，巩固的物种形成和继承的热生态位特征。该模型产生了一个令人惊讶的丰富多样的现实模式，包括密切匹配的各种当代海拔高度丰富的配置文件从海拔样带在哥斯达黎加。在间冰期的山顶覆盖和冰川最大期的低地覆盖有利于中海拔谱系，特别是在生态位保守性的约束下。温度的不对称性（冰期的持续时间比间冰期的持续时间长）和横向面积的不对称性（低海拔地区的陆地面积比高海拔地区大）对模型中的低地植被和物种丰富度的海拔模式有相反的影响，也许在自然界也是如此。
Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles repeatedly forced thermal zones up and down the slopes of mountains, at all latitudes. Although no one doubts that these temperature cycles have left their signature on contemporary patterns of geography and phylogeny, the relative roles of ecology and evolution are not well understood, especially for the tropics. To explore key mechanisms and their interactions in the context of chance events, we constructed a geographical range-based, stochastic simulation model that incorporates speciation, anagenetic evolution, niche conservatism, range shifts and extinctions under late Quaternary temperature cycles along tropical elevational gradients. In the model, elevational patterns of species richness arise from the differential survival of founder lineages, consolidated by speciation and the inheritance of thermal niche characteristics. The model yields a surprisingly rich variety of realistic patterns of phylogeny and biogeography, including close matches to a variety of contemporary elevational richness profiles from an elevational transect in Costa Rica. Mountaintop extinctions during interglacials and lowland extinctions at glacial maxima favour mid-elevation lineages, especially under the constraints of niche conservatism. Asymmetry in temperature (greater duration of glacial than of interglacial episodes) and in lateral area (greater land area at low than at high elevations) have opposing effects on lowland extinctions and the elevational pattern of species richness in the model-and perhaps in nature, as well.