Survival Analysis of Elevated Homes on the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike
Survival Analysis of Elevated Homes on the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike
复制标题
飓风艾克后玻利瓦尔半岛高架房屋的生存分析
DOI：
10.1061/9780784412626.010
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
S. Rogers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tori Tomiczek;A. Kennedy;S. Rogers
飓风艾克是袭击美国的第三大损失最惨重的飓风，2008年9月登陆德克萨斯州玻利瓦尔半岛后造成近300亿美元的损失。灾难发生后，对半岛进行了一项案例研究，以评估飓风产生的波浪和水位对木结构、桩架高架沿海住宅的影响。这项研究提供了最有影响力的这些房屋的生存结构特征的信息，并可用于验证未来的波浪力预测和高架沿海住宅的脆弱性模型。玻利瓦尔半岛上共有1922户人家进行了抽样，并在风暴期间进行了显着的波高和水位的后报，以将环境因素和结构属性与家庭的生存概率联系起来。干舷（计算为最低水平结构构件的高程与波峰和风暴潮高程之差）在确定幸存率方面发挥着关键作用：调查数据表明，正干舷导致房屋在3.5英尺（1.07米）以上的显著波高下的幸存率接近100%。最大有效波高本身也强烈影响生存;低于约3.5英尺的有效波高，生存的干舷要求急剧下降。在评估作为波高函数的生存率时，考虑了显著波高数值后报的不确定性;然而，这些估计被认为比假设每个房屋位置处的深度限制破碎波更准确。房屋经历了更大的生存率在受小的显着波高条件比在受较大的波浪影响的位置。该分析是准确确定特定波浪和水位荷载导致的预期损坏的第一步。更广泛的分析将减轻施工技术、调查偏差、碎片影响和特定环境波高估计对定量生存标准的可能影响。
Hurricane Ike was the third costliest hurricane to hit the United States, causing almost $30 billion in damage after making landfall on the Bolivar Peninsula, Texas, in September, 2008. Following the disaster, a case study of the peninsula was conducted to evaluate hurricane-generated wave and water level effects on wood framed, pile-elevated coastal residences. This study provided information about the structural characteristics most influential to the survival of these homes and may be used to validate future wave force prediction and fragility models for elevated coastal residences. A total of 1922 homes on the Bolivar Peninsula were sampled, and hindcasts of significant wave heights and water levels during the storm were run to relate environmental factors and structural attributes to a home’s probability of survival. Freeboard, calculated as the difference between the elevation of the lowest horizontal structural member and the combined wave crest and storm surge elevation, was shown to play a critical role in determining survival: survey data indicated that a positive freeboard resulted in a near 100% survival rate for homes subjected to significant wave heights above 3.5 ft (1.07 m). Survival was also strongly influenced by maximum significant wave height itself; below significant wave heights of approximately 3.5 ft, the freeboard requirement for survival dropped sharply. Uncertainty of numerical hindcasts of significant wave heights was considered when evaluating survival as a function of wave height; however, these estimations were considered more accurate than assuming depth-limited breaking waves at each house location. Homes experienced much larger survival rates in areas subject to small significant wave height conditions than in locations affected by larger waves. This analysis was the first step in accurately determining expected damage resulting from specific wave and water level loadings. A more generalized analysis will mitigate possible effects of construction techniques, survey bias, debris impact, and environment-specific wave height estimations on quantitative survival criteria.