Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality
Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0806852106
复制
发表时间：
2009-03-03
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Kohn, Melvin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shaman, Jeffrey;Kohn, Melvin
在温带地区，甲型流感的发病率在冬季达到高峰。这种明显的季节性的基础尚不清楚，也没有很好的文件证明甲型流感主要是如何传播的。以前的研究表明，相对湿度(RH)既影响流感病毒传播(IVT)，也影响流感病毒存活(IVS)。在这里，我们重新分析这些数据，以探索绝对湿度对IVT和IVS的影响。我们发现，绝对湿度(AH)对传输效率和IVS的限制比相对湿度(RH)更大。在已有的研究中，50%的IVT变异和90%的IVS变异可由AH解释，而分别只有12%和36%的IVT变异可由RH解释。在温带地区，室外和室内AH都有很强的季节循环，冬季最小。这一季节性周期与冬季IVS和IVT的增加相一致，并可能解释流感的季节性。因此，AH的差异为观察到的温带地区IVS、IVT和流感季节性的可变性提供了一个单一的、连贯的、更合理的解释。这一假说可以通过未来的、更多的实验室、流行病学和模型研究进一步验证。
Influenza A incidence peaks during winter in temperate regions. The basis for this pronounced seasonality is not understood, nor is it well documented how influenza A transmission principally occurs. Previous studies indicate that relative humidity (RH) affects both influenza virus transmission (IVT) and influenza virus survival (IVS). Here, we reanalyze these data to explore the effects of absolute humidity on IVT and IVS. We find that absolute humidity (AH) constrains both transmission efficiency and IVS much more significantly than RH. In the studies presented, 50% of IVT variability and 90% of IVS variability are explained by AH, whereas, respectively, only 12% and 36% are explained by RH. In temperate regions, both outdoor and indoor AH possess a strong seasonal cycle that minimizes in winter. This seasonal cycle is consistent with a wintertime increase in IVS and IVT and may explain the seasonality of influenza. Thus, differences in AH provide a single, coherent, more physically sound explanation for the observed variability of IVS, IVT and influenza seasonality in temperate regions. This hypothesis can be further tested through future, additional laboratory, epidemiological and modeling studies.