A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere
A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere
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DOI：
10.1038/382039a0
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发表时间：
1996-07-04
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Tett, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Santer, BD;Taylor, KE;Tett, S
1963年至1987年观测到的自由大气温度变化的空间模式与最先进的气候模型预测的相似，该模型结合了二氧化碳、人为硫酸盐气溶胶和平流层臭氧浓度变化的各种组合。在此期间，模型和观察结果之间的模式相似程度有所增加。尽管仍然存在许多不确定性，特别是与自然变化的估计有关的不确定性，但这种趋势可能部分归因于人类活动。
The observed spatial patterns of temperature change in the free atmosphere from 1963 to 1987 are similar to those predicted by state-of-the-art climate models incorporating various combinations of changes in carbon dioxide, anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and stratospheric ozone concentrations. The degree of pattern similarity between models and observations increases through this period. It is likely that this trend is partially due to human activities, although many uncertainties remain, particularly relating to estimates of natural variability.