Lakes at Risk of Chloride Contamination
Lakes at Risk of Chloride Contamination
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DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.9b07718
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发表时间：
2020-06-02
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Weathers, Kathleen C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dugan, Hilary A.;Skaff, Nicholas K.;Weathers, Kathleen C.
美国中西部和东北部的湖泊面临人为氯化物污染的风险，但对淡水盐碱化的流行程度和空间分布知之甚少。在这里，我们使用分位数回归森林（QRF）来利用来自2773个湖泊的信息来预测17个州地区所有大于4公顷的49432个湖泊的氯化物浓度。QRF纳入了22个预测变量，包括湖泊形态特征、流域土地利用、到最近道路和州际公路的距离。对所有氯化物观测值的模型预测r(2)为0.94，对每个湖泊观测到的氯化物中位数浓度的模型预测r(2)为0.86。对湖泊氯化物浓度影响最大的4个预测因子分别是流域中低强度开发、流域作物密度和到最近州际公路的距离。据预测，将近2000个湖泊的氯化物浓度将超过50毫克升（-1），应予以监测。我们鼓励管理和管理机构使用特定湖泊的模型预测来评估盐污染风险，并加强其监测战略，以更全面地保护淡水生态系统不受盐碱化的影响。
Lakes in the Midwest and Northeast United States are at risk of anthropogenic chloride contamination, but there is little knowledge of the prevalence and spatial distribution of freshwater salinization. Here we use a quantile regression forest (QRF) to leverage information from 2773 lakes to predict the chloride concentration of all 49 432 lakes greater than 4 ha in a 17-state area. The QRF incorporated 22 predictor variables, which included lake morphometry characteristics, watershed land use, and distance to the nearest road and interstate. Model predictions had an r(2) of 0.94 for all chloride observations, and an r(2) of 0.86 for predictions of the median chloride concentration observed at each lake. The four predictors with the largest influence on lake chloride concentrations were low and medium intensity development in the watershed, crop density in the watershed, and distance to the nearest interstate. Almost 2000 lakes are predicted to have chloride concentrations above 50 mg L(-1 )and should be monitored.( )We encourage( ) management and governing agencies to use lake-specific model predictions to assess salt contamination risk as well as to augment their monitoring strategies to more comprehensively protect freshwater ecosystems from salinization.