Estimating the Impact of Classification Error on the “Statistical Accuracy” of Uniform Crime Reports
Estimating the Impact of Classification Error on the “Statistical Accuracy” of Uniform Crime Reports
复制标题
估计分类错误对统一犯罪报告“统计准确性”的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10940-011-9135-9
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Jessica S. Napier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Nolan;S. Haas;Jessica S. Napier
本文提供了一种方法，估计分类错误的警察记录，然后确定统计准确性的官方犯罪统计报告的统一犯罪报告（UCR）计划。分类错误是指UCR统计数据中由于对刑事犯罪的错误分类而造成的错误，例如将本应是简单攻击的犯罪记录为严重攻击。统计准确性是指根据因分类错误而造成的少计和多计犯罪的抵消效果，对每种犯罪类型的估计真实总数。这项研究的人口包括东南部一个主要是农村的州的12个最大的市政警察机构。基于2，663条记录的样本，作者说明了分类错误对报告犯罪总人口的影响。分类错误导致某些罪行被高估或低估。每种犯罪类型的真实数量，以及犯罪指数、暴力犯罪和财产犯罪总数，都是根据抵消错误分类的评估来估计的。调查结果显示，某些UCR犯罪类别被大大低估，而其他类别则被高估。指数犯罪和暴力犯罪总数也被严重低估;然而，当简单的袭击被添加到指数和暴力犯罪类别时，这些总数的误差减少到不到1%。这些结果为评估UCR数据的统计准确性提供了基准。
This paper offers a methodological approach for estimating classification error in police records then determining the statistical accuracy of official crime statistics reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. Classification error refers to the mistakes in UCR statistics caused by the misclassification of criminal offenses, for example recording a crime as aggravated assault when it should have been simple assault. Statistical accuracy refers to the estimated true total of each crime type based on cancelling effect of undercounting and overcounting crime due to misclassifications. The population for the study consists of the 12 largest municipal police agencies in a mostly rural southeastern state. Based on a sample of 2,663 records, the authors illustrate the impact of classification error on the total population of reported offenses. Misclassifications result in overcounting and undercounting certain crimes. The true number of each crime type, as well as the aggregate Index Crime, Violent Crime, and Property Crime totals, is estimated based the evaluation of offsetting misclassifications. The findings show that certain UCR crime categories are greatly undercounted while others are overcounted. The index crime and violent crime totals are also significantly undercounted; however, when simple assault is added to the index and violent crime categories, the error in these aggregate numbers is reduced to less than 1%. The results provide a benchmark for assessing the statistical accuracy of the UCR data.