The BlueSky smoke modeling framework
The BlueSky smoke modeling framework
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DOI：
10.1071/wf07086
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Sue A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Larkin, Narasimhan K.;O'Neill, Susan M.;Ferguson, Sue A.
火灾产生的烟雾是一个地方性、区域性和经常是国际性的问题，随着对空气区域资源的竞争加剧，这个问题越来越复杂。BlueSky是一个烟雾建模框架，旨在通过模拟整个地区火灾（规定的，荒地和农业）的累积烟雾影响来帮助解决这个问题。BlueSky版本已经在美国本土的预测系统中实现，土地管理者、空气质量监管机构、事故指挥团队和公众目前可以获得基于BlueSky的烟雾影响预测。作为一个高度模块化的框架，BlueSky将各种最先进的气象、燃料、消耗、排放和空气质量模型连接在一起，并在每个建模步骤中提供多种模型选择。这种模块化还允许在类似的组件模型之间进行直接比较。本文介绍了整体模型框架版本2.5 -组件模型，它们是如何连接在一起，从两个野火的案例研究的结果。预测结果受建模路径的具体选择的影响。在选择路径的情况下，模拟输出一般与卫星观测到的羽流形状和范围相比较，但低估了地面监测器观测到的表面浓度。敏感性研究表明，火灾行为的知识可以大大提高这些烟雾影响计算的准确性。
Smoke from fire is a local, regional and often international issue that is growing in complexity as competition for airshed resources increases. BlueSky is a smoke modeling framework designed to help address this problem by enabling simulations of the cumulative smoke impacts from fires (prescribed, wildland, and agricultural) across a region. Versions of BlueSky have been implemented in prediction systems across the contiguous US, and land managers, air-quality regulators, incident command teams, and the general public can currently obtain BlueSky-based predictions of smoke impacts for their region. A highly modular framework, BlueSky links together a variety of state-of-the-art models of meteorology, fuels, consumption, emissions, and air quality, and offers multiple model choices at each modeling step. This modularity also allows direct comparison between similar component models. This paper presents the overall model framework Version 2.5 - the component models, how they are linked together, and the results from case studies of two wildfires. Predicted results are affected by the specific choice of modeling pathway. With the pathway chosen, the modeled output generally compares well with plume shape and extent as observed by satellites, but underpredicts surface concentrations as observed by ground monitors. Sensitivity studies show that knowledge of fire behavior can greatly improve the accuracy of these smoke impact calculations.