Lognormal model for health risk assessment of fluctuating concentrations.
Lognormal model for health risk assessment of fluctuating concentrations.
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用于波动浓度健康风险评估的对数正态模型。
DOI：
10.1080/15298668791384535
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发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Saltzman,BE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Saltzman,BE
由于法律的和经济的压力，越来越需要对接触有害物质进行健康风险评估。该程序的一个重要部分是剂量-效应关系的数学模型。如果假定线性无阈值关系，则波动浓度的平均值可用于计算健康风险。但是，广泛使用的PEL和TLV®值假定了阈值关系。对于这一点和非线性关系，使用平均浓度的计算是不准确的，因为较高的浓度产生不成比例的较高影响。基于对数正态浓度和概率单位效应，提出了一个合适的数学模型。该方法不需要监测不太可能的高浓度值，而是需要估计其几何平均值和几何标准差。然后，可以根据所提供的图表和表格简单方便地计算健康风险评估。该方法阐明了利用和改进所需数据的一些问题和细节。该模型应有助于评估大多数有毒化合物浓度波动所带来的健康风险。
Health risk assessments of exposures to harmful materials increasingly are required because of legal and economic pressures. An important part of the procedure is the mathematical model for the dose-effects relationship. If a linear no-threshold relationship is assumed, then the mean of fluctuating concentrations may be used for the calculation of health risk. But the widely used PEL and TLV® values assume a threshold relationship. For this and for nonlinear relationships the calculation with the use of the mean concentration is inaccurate, because higher concentrations produce disproportionately higher effects. An appropriate mathematical model based upon lognormal concentrations and probit effects is proposed. Rather than monitoring concentrations for unlikely high values, the method requires estimation of their geometric mean and geometric standard deviation. A health risk assessment then may be calculated simply and conveniently from the charts and tables provided. The method clarifies some issues and the specifics of utilizing and improving the required data. The model should be useful for assessing health risks from fluctuating concentrations of most toxic compounds.