Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century
Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century
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DOI：
10.1029/2007jd008933
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发表时间：
2008-02-06
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Turner, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bracegirdle, Thomas J.;Connolley, William M.;Turner, John
在这里，我们根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告（AR 4）中开发的模型数据，对21世纪南极气候变化进行了新的评估。为了提供对未来变化的更可靠的估计，对模式输出应用了加权方案，这取决于它们再现世纪后期平均气候的能力。结果表明，南极绕极西风带的增加有季节变化，秋季增加最多，达27%。这个季节性周期被认为是与预测的半年振荡（SAO）的变化是一致的。在夏季和秋季，西风分量的增加向南迁移足够远，表现为沿海东风的减少。整个大陆的平均地表变暖预计为0.34摄氏度dec（-1），模型间标准差为0.10摄氏度dec（-1）。在冬季，海冰退缩的地区，例如北极，会出现更快的变暖。例如，在一个实施例中，0.51南极洲东部周围+/- 0.26摄氏度12月（-1）。对海冰总面积的预测显示减少了2.6 +/-0.73x10（6）km（2）（33%）。预计非洲大陆平均净降水量将增加2.9 +/- 1.2毫米a（-1）dec（-1）。加权给出了秋季SAO峰值的较大增加，4月份增加了30%。这与秋季绕极西风带的较大加权增加，海冰的减少以及由此产生的较大表面温度增加是一致的。
Here we present a new assessment of Antarctic climate change over the 21st century based on data from the models that were developed as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4). To provide more reliable estimates of future change, a weighting scheme was applied to the model output, which depends on a measure of their ability to reproduce the mean climate of the late 20th century. The results show a seasonal variation of increases in circumpolar westerlies around Antarctica, which show the largest increases of 27% in autumn. This seasonal cycle was found to be consistent with projected changes in the semi-annual oscillation (SAO). In summer and autumn the increases of the westerly wind component migrate sufficiently far south to be manifested as a reduction of the coastal easterlies. The surface warming averaged over the continent is projected to be 0.34 degrees C dec(-1) with an inter-model standard deviation of 0.10 degrees C dec(-1). More rapid warming occurs during the winter over regions of sea ice retreat, e. g., 0.51 +/- 0.26 degrees C dec(-1) around East Antarctica. Projections of total sea-ice area show a decrease of 2.6 +/- 0.73 x 10(6) km(2) (33%). There is a projected increase of net precipitation averaged over the continent of 2.9 +/- 1.2 mm a(-1) dec(-1). The weighting gives a larger increase of the autumn SAO peak, up to 30% larger for April. This is consistent with larger weighted autumn increases of circumpolar westerlies, more sea ice reduction and resulting larger skin temperature increases.