Guidance on Expert Knowledge Elicitation in Food and Feed Safety Risk Assessment
Guidance on Expert Knowledge Elicitation in Food and Feed Safety Risk Assessment
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DOI：
10.2903/j.efsa.2014.3734
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发表时间：
2014-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.3
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中科院分区：
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定量风险评估有助于风险管理人员的决策。在欧盟，食品和饲料安全风险评估由欧洲食品安全局（EFSA）负责。定量风险模型应参考经过系统审查的科学证据，但在实践中，经验证据往往有限：在这种情况下，有必要求助于专家判断。心理学研究表明，专家对风险建模所需数量的独立判断-特别是与这种判断相关的不确定性-往往是有偏见的，从而限制了其价值。因此，已经制定了尽可能不带偏见地从专家那里获取知识的方法。2012年，成立了一个工作组，负责制定适合EFSA职权范围的专家知识获取指南。由此产生的《指导意见》首先将专家知识的获取作为一个过程提出，这一过程从界定风险评估问题开始，经过获取知识的准备工作（例如，选择专家和所使用的方法）和获取知识本身，最后形成文件。确定了负责管理每个阶段的人员。接下来给出了三个详细的专家知识获取协议-可以应用于食品和饲料安全的现实生活中的问题-并检查这些协议的利弊。其次是克服专家知识获取的主要挑战的原则：提出问题;选择专家;引出不确定性;汇总多位专家的结果;记录过程。然后报告了对现有专家征集指导文件进行网络搜索的结果，沿着的还有一些案例研究，其中介绍了《指导》的一些规程。最后，建议在培训，组织变革，专家识别和管理，并在EFSA内的专家知识启发方法的进一步发展领域。(C)欧洲食品安全局，2014年
Quantitative risk assessments facilitate the decisions of risk managers. In the EU, risk assessment in food and feed safety is the responsibility of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Quantitative risk models should be informed by systematically reviewed scientific evidence, however, in practice empirical evidence is often limited: in such cases it is necessary to turn to expert judgement. Psychological research has shown that unaided expert judgement of the quantities required for risk modelling - and particularly the uncertainty associated with such judgements - is often biased, thus limiting its value. Accordingly methods have been developed for eliciting knowledge from experts in as unbiased a manner as possible. In 2012, a working group was established to develop guidance on expert knowledge elicitation appropriate to EFSA's remit. The resulting Guidance first presents expert knowledge elicitation as a process beginning with defining the risk assessment problem, moving through preparation for elicitation (e.g. selecting the experts and the method to be used) and the elicitation itself, culminating in documentation. Those responsible for managing each of these phases are identified. Next three detailed protocols for expert knowledge elicitation are given - that can be applied to real-life questions in food and feed safety - and the pros and cons of each of these protocols are examined. This is followed by principles for overcoming the major challenges to expert knowledge elicitation: framing the question; selecting the experts; eliciting uncertainty; aggregating the results of multiple experts; and documenting the process. The results of a web search on existing guidance documents on expert elicitation are then reported, along with case studies illustrating some of the protocols of the Guidance. Finally, recommendations are made in the areas of training, organisational changes, expert identification and management, and further developments of expert knowledge elicitation methodology within EFSA. (C) European Food Safety Authority, 2014