Prevalence and Determinants of Preterm Birth in Tehran, Iran: A Comparison between Logistic Regression and Decision Tree Methods.
Prevalence and Determinants of Preterm Birth in Tehran, Iran: A Comparison between Logistic Regression and Decision Tree Methods.
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DOI：
10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.3.06
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发表时间：
2017-06
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Sepidarkish M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amini P;Maroufizadeh S;Samani RO;Hamidi O;Sepidarkish M
早产（PTB）是新生儿死亡的主要原因，也是五岁以下儿童死亡的第二大原因。本研究的目的是使用逻辑回归和决策树分类方法来确定PTB的患病率及其相关因素。这项横断面研究于2015年7月6日至21日在伊朗德黑兰对4,415名孕妇进行。研究人员通过对母亲的采访和对她们的医疗记录的回顾，开发了一份调查问卷，收集了数据。为了评估逻辑回归和决策树方法的准确性，使用了几个指标，如灵敏度、特异性和曲线下面积。本研究中PTB发生率为5.5%。Logistic回归优于基于危险因素的PTB分类的决策树。Logistic回归分析显示，多胎妊娠、先兆子痫母亲和辅助生殖技术妊娠者患PTB的风险增加（p < 0.05）。识别和培训有风险的母亲以及改善产前护理可能会降低PTB率。我们还建议统计学家利用逻辑回归模型对PTB的风险组进行分类。
Preterm birth (PTB) is a leading cause of neonatal death and the second biggest cause of death in children under five years of age. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of PTB and its associated factors using logistic regression and decision tree classification methods. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 4,415 pregnant women in Tehran, Iran, from July 6–21, 2015. Data were collected by a researcher-developed questionnaire through interviews with mothers and review of their medical records. To evaluate the accuracy of the logistic regression and decision tree methods, several indices such as sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve were used. The PTB rate was 5.5% in this study. The logistic regression outperformed the decision tree for the classification of PTB based on risk factors. Logistic regression showed that multiple pregnancies, mothers with preeclampsia, and those who conceived with assisted reproductive technology had an increased risk for PTB (p < 0.05). Identifying and training mothers at risk as well as improving prenatal care may reduce the PTB rate. We also recommend that statisticians utilize the logistic regression model for the classification of risk groups for PTB.