Enhancing early warning in the light of migration and environmental shocks
Enhancing early warning in the light of migration and environmental shocks
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsci.2012.04.002
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Setiadi, Neysa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Birkmann, Joern;Seng, Denis Chang;Setiadi, Neysa
预警系统是减少风险和适应极端事件战略的关键要素。到目前为止，大多数预警系统主要侧重于灾害探测、即时预警和疏散过程，以便在极端事件发生时挽救生命;然而，鉴于气候变化和移民问题，还必须更多地关注预警系统如何改善生计保障的问题。一方面，移徙模式、城市化和人口增长是重要因素，将改变并在大多数情况下增加风险，在某些情况下增加脆弱性。另一方面，极端事件和海平面上升背景下的移徙也可能是一项重要的适应战略。该文件讨论了以人为本的预警概念，并探讨了如何更好地考虑所谓的“最后一英里”的各个方面。在这方面，讨论和分析了预警的框架条件和治理背景。概述了如何加强预警系统的战略，特别是关于移徙、城市化、日常流动和预警之间的关系。到目前为止，大多数EWS没有充分考虑信息或警告链中的迁移和日常移动模式。因此，本文探讨了移徙、城市化和日常流动模式对有效预警的重要性。在此讨论的基础上，本文确定了在气候变化的背景下，早期预警的新挑战，并处理综合预警系统的潜在限制。最后，本文得出的结论和建议，不仅如何更好地说明在EWS的移徙，而且如何改善考虑早期预警的移徙和适应战略。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Early Warning Systems (EWS) are key elements of risk reduction and adaptation strategies to extreme events. Until now, most EWS have focused mainly on hazard detection and the immediate warning and evacuation processes with an effort of saving lives in the context of an extreme event; however, in the light of climate change and migration more attention must also be paid to the question of how EWS can improve livelihood security. On the one hand, migration patterns, urbanization and population growth are important factors that will modify and in most cases increase exposure, and in some cases increase vulnerability. On the other hand, migration in the context of extreme events and sea level rise might also be an important adaptation strategy. The paper deals with the concept of people-centred early warning and examines how aspects of the so-called Last Mile can be better taken into account. In this regard, the framework conditions and the governance context of early warning are discussed and analysed. Strategies on how to enhance EWS are outlined, particularly regarding the nexus between migration, urbanization, daily mobility and early warning. Up to now, most EWS do not sufficiently consider migration and daily mobility patterns within the information or warning chain. Therefore, the paper examines the importance of migration, urbanization and daily mobility patterns for effective early warning. On the basis of this discussion, the paper identifies new challenges for early warning in the context of climate change and deals with the potential constraints of integrative EWS. Finally, the paper derives conclusions and recommendations on not only how to better account for migration in EWS, but also how to improve the consideration of early warning in migration and adaptation strategies. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.