Modeling Financial Analysts’ Decision Making via the Pragmatics and Semantics of Earnings Calls
Modeling Financial Analysts’ Decision Making via the Pragmatics and Semantics of Earnings Calls
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DOI：
10.18653/v1/p19-1047
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发表时间：
2019-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Katherine A. Keith;Amanda Stent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Katherine A. Keith;Amanda Stent
每个财政季度，公司都会召开财报电话会议，公司高管在会上回答分析师的问题。在这些电话会议之后，分析师通常会改变他们的目标价建议，这些建议用于股票研究报告，以帮助投资者做出决策。在本文中，我们研究了分析师的决策行为，因为它涉及到财报电话会议的语言内容。我们确定了分析师问题的20个实用特征，我们将这些特征与分析师在电话会议前的投资者建议联系起来。我们还分析了盈利电话会议的语义和语用特征在预测分析师会后价格目标变化方面对市场数据的补充程度。我们的研究结果表明，财报电话会议对分析师的决策有适度的预测作用，尽管这些决策受到许多其他因素的影响，包括与公司高管的私人沟通和市场状况。模型误差的细分表明，来自不同市场部门的呼叫表现各异。
Every fiscal quarter, companies hold earnings calls in which company executives respond to questions from analysts. After these calls, analysts often change their price target recommendations, which are used in equity re- search reports to help investors make deci- sions. In this paper, we examine analysts’ decision making behavior as it pertains to the language content of earnings calls. We identify a set of 20 pragmatic features of analysts’ questions which we correlate with analysts’ pre-call investor recommendations. We also analyze the degree to which semantic and pragmatic features from an earnings call complement market data in predicting analysts’ post-call changes in price targets. Our results show that earnings calls are moderately predictive of analysts’ decisions even though these decisions are influenced by a number of other factors including private communication with company executives and market conditions. A breakdown of model errors indicates disparate performance on calls from different market sectors.