On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change
On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2011.2367
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发表时间：
2012-05
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. C. Urban;J. Tewksbury;Kimberly S. Sheldon
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. C. Urban;J. Tewksbury;Kimberly S. Sheldon
大多数气候变化预测忽略了物种间的相互作用和扩散过程中的种间差异。在这里，我们建立了一个多个相互竞争的物种沿着气候变暖梯度的模型，其中包括依赖于温度的竞争、生态位宽度的差异和物种间扩散能力的差异。竞争和分散的差异降低了多样性，并产生了所谓的“无类比”群落，其定义是目前尚未共存的一种新的物种组合。气候变化对群落丰富度的影响最大的时候，物种的生态位较窄，群落范围内的平均扩散速率较低，物种的扩散能力不同。由于物种间的扩散差异很大，最好的分散者跟踪了气候变化，超过了较慢的分散者，并导致了它们的灭绝。总体而言，竞争减缓了殖民者进入新的合适栖息地的速度，造成了气候跟踪的滞后。我们预测，气候变化将对生态位狭窄(例如热带)、分散程度不同(大多数群落)和竞争激烈的物种群落构成最大威胁。目前的预测可能低估了气候变化对生物多样性的影响，因为它忽略了竞争和分散差异。
Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called ‘no-analogue’ communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences.