Identification of Regional Climatic Conditions Favorable for Development of European Canker of Apple
Identification of Regional Climatic Conditions Favorable for Development of European Canker of Apple
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DOI：
10.1094/phyto-05-10-0137
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Kim, Kwang Soo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beresford, Robert M.;Kim, Kwang Soo
根据已发布的数据确定了美国、智利、英国和北爱尔兰地区一年中欧洲溃疡病（Neonectria galligena）发展高风险的月份。使用单项气候数据的移动窗口分析，根据一致性统计程度，对这些地区与降雨和温度条件相关的疾病风险进行分类。当每月超过 30% 的天数下雨且平均每天超过 8 小时且温度为 11 至 16 摄氏度时，出现了最大的一致性。当这些阈值应用于新西兰、澳大利亚、美国、荷兰的八个验证区域时。在丹麦和丹麦，据报道疾病风险较高的地区往往是超出阈值的频率更高且数量更大的地区。夏季降雨频繁的高纬度地区（>52度）似乎最容易发生欧洲溃疡病，包括该病的果实腐烂期，可能是因为夏季温度比低纬度地区更有利。欧洲溃疡病的气候阈值可用于疾病传播风险、监测、根除、气候变化影响评估以及疾病风险预测的研究。即使缺乏定量的区域疾病数据，本研究中使用的方法也可以确定有利于疾病发展的条件，并且它们可用于其他疾病的类似地理气候研究。
Months of the year with high risk of European canker (Neonectria galligena) development in areas of the United States, Chile, England, and Northern Ireland were determined from published data. Moving-window analysis of lone-term climatic data was used to classify disease risk in these areas in relation to rainfall and temperature conditions using the degree of agreement statistic. Greatest agreement occurred when it both rained on >30% of days/month and there was an average of >8 h/day with temperature of 11 to 16 degrees C. When these thresholds were applied in eight validation areas in New Zealand, Australia, the United States, The Netherlands. and Denmark, areas with reported higher risk of disease tended to be areas where the thresholds were exceeded more often and by greater amounts. Areas at higher latitudes (>52 degrees) with frequent summer rainfall appeared to be most prone to European canker, including the fruit rot phase of the disease, probably because summer temperatures were more favorable than at lower latitudes. The climatic thresholds derived for European canker could be useful for studies of disease establishment risk, surveillance, eradication, climate change impact assessment, and, possibly, for disease risk forecasting. The methods used in this study allowed conditions favorable for disease development to be identified even though quantitative regional disease data were lacking, and they could be useful for similar geoclimatic studies of other diseases.