Medication sales and syndromic surveillance, France
Medication sales and syndromic surveillance, France
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DOI：
10.3201/eid1203.050573
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Flahault, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vergu, E;Grais, RF;Flahault, A
虽然使用非临床数据的症状监测系统已在美国实施，但该方法尚未在法国进行测试。我们提出了第一个模型的结果，根据药物销售，检测流感季节的开始，并预测其趋势。使用选定的一组药物的每周滞后销售，我们预测流感样疾病（ILl）的发病率在国家和地区一级的3个流行季节（2000-01，2001-02，和2002-03），并验证模型的实时更新的第四个（2003-04）。对于1-3周前的国家预报，观察到的IL 1发病率与预报之间的相关性为0.85-0.96，这比法国目前的监测方法有所改进。我们的研究结果表明，药品销售是一个有用的附加工具，症状监测，补充和独立的信息来源，并为流行病和大流行规划的早期预警系统的潜在改进。
Although syndromic surveillance systems using non-clinical data have been implemented in the United States, the approach has yet to be tested in France. We present the results of the first model based on drug sales that detects the onset of influenza season and forecasts its trend. Using weekly lagged sales of a selected set of medications, we forecast influenzalike illness (ILl) incidence at the national and regional level for 3 epidemic seasons (2000-01, 2001-02, and 2002-03) and validate the model with real-time updating on the fourth (2003-04). For national forecasts 1-3 weeks ahead, the correlation between observed ILl incidence and forecast was 0.85-0.96, an improvement over the current surveillance method in France. Our findings indicate that drug sales are a useful additional tool to syndromic surveillance, a complementary and independent source of information, and a potential improvement for early warning systems for both epidemic and pandemic planning.