Variable Natural Mortality Rates Inflate Variance of Recruitments Estimated from Virtual Population Analysis (VPA)
Variable Natural Mortality Rates Inflate Variance of Recruitments Estimated from Virtual Population Analysis (VPA)
复制标题
可变的自然死亡率会扩大虚拟人口分析 (VPA) 估计的招募方差
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1992
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. Rothschild
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Lapointe;R. Peterman;B. Rothschild
考虑到“真实的”瞬时成人自然死亡率(M)可能随时间而变化，但在VPA （MVPA）中使用恒定的M，我们使用一个模拟模型来确定从虚拟种群分析（VPA）中获得的鱼类数量估计值(1)是否具有正确的年际变率，(2)在与环境因素相关时是否具有高统计力（>.8）。在这种情况下，VPA夸大了招聘的可变性，从而降低了正确检测与招聘相关的环境的可能性。这些影响的程度随着以下因素的增加而增加：(1)真实平均M的绝对值，(2)M随时间的变化，(3)MVPA的相对误差，以及(4)MVPA相对于FL（瞬时终端捕捞死亡率）的程度，并随着捕捞真实变化程度的增加或与环境因素的真实相关性的增加而减少（其他条件相同）。在大多数情况下，这种偏差并不大。
We used a simulation model to determine whether estimates offish recruitment obtained from virtual population analysis (VPA) (1) have the correct interannual variability and (2) yield high statistical power (>0.8) when correlated with an environmental factor, given that the "true" instantaneous adult natural mortality rate (M) likely varies over time but a constant M is used in VPA (MVPA). Under such circumstances, VPA exaggerates variability in recruitment, which reduces the probability of correctly detecting environmental correlates with recruitment. The magnitude of these effects increases with increases in (1) the absolute value of the true mean M, (2) the variation in M over time, (3) the relative error in MVPA, and (4) the magnitude of MVPA relative to FL (instantaneous terminal fishing mortality rate) and decreases with increases in magnitude of the true variation of recruitment or the true correlation with the environmental factor (all else being equal). This bias is not large under most condition...