Debt Overhang in the Eurozone: A Spatial Panel Analysis
Debt Overhang in the Eurozone: A Spatial Panel Analysis
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欧元区债务过剩：空间面板分析
DOI：
10.52324/001c.8143
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Mark L. Burkey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alfredo A. Romero;Mark L. Burkey
债务过剩假说表明，高债务水平阻碍了 GDP 增长的前景。 我们调查了债务过剩对欧元区近期 GDP 增长的影响，特别关注债务对邻国的溢出效应。 我们认为，在欧元区，空间效应对于区域 GDP 增长建模至关重要，并发现空间杜宾模型是合适的。 我们找到了债务过剩假说的有力证据，证实了其他研究中发现的凹关系，即低水平的债务可以对 GDP 产生积极影响，但在某种程度上会出现“转折点”。 本研究发现，这一转折点发生在债务/GDP 比率低于先前研究的情况下，并区分了对邻国 GDP 的直接和间接（溢出）影响。
The debt overhang hypothesis suggests that high debt levels retard prospects for GDP growth. We investigate the impact that debt overhang has had on recent GDP growth in the Eurozone, paying particular attention to the spillover effects that debt has on neighboring countries. We argue that in the Eurozone spatial effects are of crucial importance in modeling regional GDP growth, and find that a Spatial Durbin model is appropriate. We find strong evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis, confirming a concave relationship that has been found in other studies where low levels of debt can have a positive impact on GDP, but at some level a “turning point” occurs. The present study finds that this turning point occurs at a lower Debt/GDP ratio than prior studies, and separates out the direct and indirect (spillover) effects on neighboring countries’ GDPs.