What Happens When the Technology Growth Trend Changes?: Transition Dynamics, Capital Growth and the 'New Economy'
What Happens When the Technology Growth Trend Changes?: Transition Dynamics, Capital Growth and the 'New Economy'
复制标题
当技术增长趋势发生变化时会发生什么？：转型动力、资本增长和“新经济”
DOI：
10.1006/redy.2002.0169
复制
发表时间：
2001
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Michael R. Pakko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michael R. Pakko
本文利用一个包含随机技术增长趋势的一般均衡框架，考察了与技术进步速度变化相关的转型动态。该模型表明，这些动态与漫长的过渡期有关，特别是在技术增长体现为资本的时候。对二战后美国经济的模拟表明，该模型的传播机制能够解释观察到的增长率的很大一部分变化，特别是在投资、资本积累和就业方面。模拟表明，20世纪80年代中期和90年代初对技术趋势增长率的积极冲击是90年代末生产率加速的先兆。(版权所有：爱思唯尔)
This paper considers transition dynamics associated with a change in the rate of technological progress, using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates stochastic technology growth trends. The model suggests that these dynamics are associated with protracted transition periods, especially when technology growth is capital-embodied. Simulations of the post-WWII U.S. economy show that the model's propagation mechanism is capable of explaining a significant portion of variation in observed growth rates, particularly for investment, capital accumulation, and employment. The simulations suggest that positive shocks to the trend rate of technology growth in the mid-1980s and early 1990s were precursors to the productivity accelerations of the late 1990s. (Copyright: Elsevier)
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.233139
发表时间：
2000-03
期刊：
IO: Productivity
影响因子：
--
作者：
Stephen D. Oliner;Daniel E. Sichel
通讯作者：
Stephen D. Oliner;Daniel E. Sichel