A mathematical model for the 1973 cholera epidemic in the European Mediterranean region.
A mathematical model for the 1973 cholera epidemic in the European Mediterranean region.
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发表时间：
1979-09
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通讯作者：
V. Capasso;S. Paveri‐Fontana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Capasso;S. Paveri‐Fontana
针对1973年夏季发生在欧洲地中海地区的霍乱疫情，提出了一个简单的确定性数学模型；它由两个常微分方程组组成，涉及城镇社区中人类感染群体和海洋中细菌群体的演变。据推测，感染过程服从非线性饱和型规律。对方程组进行相空间分析。得出的结论涉及流行病的演变，并为公共卫生政策的选择提供了一些指导。将模型的有效性与巴里镇（意大利）的现有数据进行了比较。
For the cholera epidemic that occurred in the European Mediterranean region in the summer of 1973, a simple deterministic mathematic model is proposed; it consists of a system of two ordinary differential equations which concern the evolution of the human infective population in a town community and of bacteria population in the sea. It is conjectured that the infection process obeys a non linear saturation-type law. A phase space analysis is performed for the system of equations. Conclusions are drawn which concern the evolution of the epidemic and which suggest some indications for the selection of public health policies. The validity of the model is compared with the available data for the town of Bari (Italy).