Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence on foreign capital
Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence on foreign capital
复制标题
DOI：
10.2307/2137546
复制
发表时间：
1997-06-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Williamson, JG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Higgins, M;Williamson, JG
自科尔和胡佛在1958年撰文以来，不断上升的生育率和不断下降的死亡率对亚洲的储蓄、投资和对外国资本的依赖产生了深远的影响。本文认为，自20世纪60年代以来，亚洲储蓄率的显著上升，在很大程度上可以用青年抚养负担的显著下降来解释。在年轻人的依赖负担大幅下降的地方，亚洲国家已经放弃了对外国资本的依赖。老龄化不会削弱日本在下个世纪的资本输出能力，但流向亚洲其他国家的资本却很少；相反，预计亚洲其他国家将成为资本净出口国。这些结论来自一个模型，该模型将传统的依赖率文献对储蓄的关注扩展到投资和净资本流动。
Rising fertility and declining mortality have had a profound impact on Asian savings, investment, and foreign capital dependency since Coale and Hoover wrote in 1958. This article argues that much of the impressive rise in Asian savings rates since the 1960s can be explained by the equally impressive decline in youth dependency burdens. Wherever the youth dependency burden has fallen dramatically, Asian countries have relinquished their reliance on foreign capital. Aging will not diminish Japan's capacity to export capital in the next century, but little of it will go to the rest of Asia; rather, the countries in the rest of Asia are expected to become net capital exporters. These conclusions emerge from a model that extends the conventional focus of the dependency rate literature on savings to investment and net capital flows.