Raw Materials, Profits, and the Productivity Slowdown: A Complementary Note [Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor].
Raw Materials, Profits, and the Productivity Slowdown: A Complementary Note [Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor].
复制标题
原材料、利润和生产率放缓：补充说明[生产率以及资本和劳动力的服务]。
DOI：
10.2307/1884649
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发表时间：
1986
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Bruno
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Bruno
加薪。自20世纪70年代末首次讨论这个问题以来，越来越多的证据表明，过去十年工业国家生产率的急剧放缓，肯定与那个时期的特定宏观经济冲击密切相关，不能用技术前沿放缓或土地或移民劳动力等传统要素供应来源枯竭等渐进过程来解释。在任何情况下，可能除了美国之外，都没有证据表明在1973年之前的15-20年期间，生产率增长急剧放缓。一个简单的统计检验表明，在1973-1975年间，大多数国家的生产率增长至少存在一个主要的“拐点”。与当时急剧的石油和原材料价格冲击之间的隐含联系进一步得到了以下事实的证明：各国的总体生产率放缓，至少在制造业，似乎与不同国家的相对原材料价格加速有关，尽管这不是唯一的直接解释因素[Bruno and Sachs，1985，表12.4]。为了给上世纪70年代的事件与生产率急剧放缓之间的联系提供理论依据，几位候选人提出了自己的观点。在制造业等物质密集型行业，衡量生产率的第一个、也是最明显的一个指标是，在生产中直接用初级投入替代昂贵的能源和原材料。在其他条件相同的情况下，在这种情况下，衡量增加值生产率的传统双通货紧缩基础加权指标将给经济放缓带来下行倾向。
raise. Ever since the problem was first discussed in the late 1970s, there has been growing evidence that the sharp productivity slowdown of the industrial countries in the last decade must have been closely linked to the specific macroeconomic shocks of that period and could not be explained by gradual processes such as the slowing down of the technological frontier or the drying up of the sources of conventional factor supplies like land-or immigrant labor. In no case, except possibly the United States, is there evidence of a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in the 15-20 year period before 1973. A simple statistical test' dates at least one major "kink" in the productivity growth of most countries in and around the period 1973-1975. The implied link with the sharp oil and raw material price shock of that time is further borne out by the fact that the total productivity slowdown across countries, at least in manufacturing, seems correlated with the relative raw material price acceleration in different countries, though this is not the only direct explanatory factor [Bruno and Sachs, 1985, Table 12.4]. In an attempt to give a theoretical rationale for the link between the events of the 1970s and the sharp productivity slowdown, several candidates offer themselves. The first and most obvious one for gross output measures of productivity in a material-intensive sector like manufacturing is the direct substitution in production of primary inputs against costly energy and raw materials. Other things being equal, conventional doubledeflated base-weighted measures of value-added productivity will in such case impart a downward bias to the slowdown.