Geo-Epidemiology of Malaria at the Health Area Level, Dire Health District, Mali, 2013-2017
Geo-Epidemiology of Malaria at the Health Area Level, Dire Health District, Mali, 2013-2017
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17113982
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gaudart, Jean
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cissoko, Mady;Sagara, Issaka;Gaudart, Jean
背景资料：根据世界卫生组织的数据，2018年全球疟疾病例超过2.28亿例，其中93%的病例发生在非洲;在马里，2015年至2018年的病例数增加了13%;本研究旨在评估气象和环境因素对Dire卫生区疟疾地理流行病学的影响，马里.研究方法：利用主成分分析和多重对应分析对气象和环境变量进行了综合，利用多变量通用加法模型确定了疟疾发病率与综合指标之间的关系;利用SaTScan检测了热点。结果如下：疟疾发病率在年度间和年度内表现出很大的变异性;高传播期从9月持续到2月;以靠近河流、易发洪水和农业高产为特点的健康地区风险最大，发病率比为2.21，置信区间为（95%CI：1.85-2.58）; 2013年至2017年，迪尔的疟疾发病率从每万人周120例下降到20例。结论：确定疟疾高发区和高发期有助于改进疟疾控制策略。
Background: According to the World Health Organization, there were more than 228 million cases of malaria globally in 2018, with 93% of cases occurring in Africa; in Mali, a 13% increase in the number of cases was observed between 2015 and 2018; this study aimed to evaluate the impact of meteorological and environmental factors on the geo-epidemiology of malaria in the health district of Dire, Mali. Methods: Meteorological and environmental variables were synthesized using principal component analysis and multiple correspondence analysis, the relationship between malaria incidence and synthetic indicators was determined using a multivariate general additive model; hotspots were detected by SaTScan. Results: Malaria incidence showed high inter and intra-annual variability; the period of high transmission lasted from September to February; health areas characterized by proximity to the river, propensity for flooding and high agricultural yield were the most at risk, with an incidence rate ratio of 2.21 with confidence intervals (95% CI: 1.85-2.58); malaria incidence in Dire declined from 120 to 20 cases per 10,000 person-weeks between 2013 and 2017. Conclusion: The identification of areas and periods of high transmission can help improve malaria control strategies.