Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change
Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/35036559
复制
发表时间：
2000-10-05
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Delworth, TL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allen, MR;Stott, PA;Delworth, TL
对气候变化的预测不可避免地存在不确定性。因此，必须量化对某一特定排放情景的预测反应严重偏离的风险。以前对这种风险的分析要么是基于专家意见(1)，要么是基于简化气候模式的扰动分析（2-5），要么是基于一般环流模式预测的比较(6)。最近观测到的似乎可归因于人类影响的变化（7-12）对多年代际预测的不确定性提供了强有力的限制。在这里，我们评估了与观测到的近地表温度记录相一致的未来50年升温速率的范围，以及与几个一般环流模式预测的总体响应模式相一致的范围。我们预计，在“一切照旧”的排放情景下，2036- 2046年的全球平均气温将比工业化前高1-2.5摄氏度。只要这些误差在一段时间内持续存在，这个范围对于模式的气候敏感性、海洋热吸收率或全球对硫酸盐气溶胶的反应的误差是相对稳健的。然而，当前温室增温和硫酸盐气溶胶降温平衡的实质性变化将增加不确定性。与50年的变暖速率不同，尽管新出现的信号提供了证据，但大气成分稳定后的最终平衡变暖仍然非常不确定。
Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. It is therefore essential to quantify the risk of significant departures from the predicted response to a given emission scenario. Previous analyses of this risk have been based either on expert opinion(1), perturbation analysis of simplified climate models(2-5) or the comparison of predictions from general circulation models(6). Recent observed changes that appear to be attributable to human influence(7-12) provide a powerful constraint on the uncertainties in multi-decadal forecasts. Here we assess the range of warming rates over the coming 50 years that are consistent with the observed near-surface temperature record as well as with the overall patterns of response predicted by several general circulation models. We expect global mean temperatures in the decade 2036-46 to be 1-2.5 K warmer than in pre-industrial times under a 'business as usual' emission scenario. This range is relatively robust to errors in the models' climate sensitivity, rate of oceanic heat uptake or global response to sulphate aerosols as long as these errors are persistent over time. Substantial changes in the current balance of greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling would, however, increase the uncertainty. Unlike 50-year warming rates, the final equilibrium warming after the atmospheric composition stabilizes remains very uncertain, despite the evidence provided by the emerging signal.