Projecting Cancer Incidence and Deaths to 2030: The Unexpected Burden of Thyroid, Liver, and Pancreas Cancers in the United States
Projecting Cancer Incidence and Deaths to 2030: The Unexpected Burden of Thyroid, Liver, and Pancreas Cancers in the United States
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DOI：
10.1158/0008-5472.can-14-0155
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发表时间：
2014-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Matrisian, Lynn M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rahib, Lola;Smith, Benjamin D.;Matrisian, Lynn M.
根据不断变化的人口统计数据以及发病率和死亡率的年均百分比变化，预计2020年和2030年美国最常见癌症类型的癌症发病率和死亡率。在此期间，乳腺癌、前列腺癌和肺癌仍将是最常见的癌症诊断，但到2030年，甲状腺癌将取代结直肠癌成为第四大癌症诊断，黑色素瘤和子宫癌将分别成为第五和第六大常见癌症。预计在这段时间内，肺癌仍将是头号癌症杀手。然而，预计到2030年，胰腺癌和肝癌将超过乳腺癌、前列腺癌和结直肠癌，分别成为癌症相关死亡的第二和第三大原因。筛查、预防和治疗方面的进步可以改变癌症的发病率和/或死亡率，但现在需要研究和医疗保健社区的共同努力，才能在未来产生实质性的变化。(C)2014年AACR。
Cancer incidence and deaths in the United States were projected for the most common cancer types for the years 2020 and 2030 based on changing demographics and the average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Breast, prostate, and lung cancers will remain the top cancer diagnoses throughout this time, but thyroid cancer will replace colorectal cancer as the fourth leading cancer diagnosis by 2030, and melanoma and uterine cancer will become the fifth and sixth most common cancers, respectively. Lung cancer is projected to remain the top cancer killer throughout this time period. However, pancreas and liver cancers are projected to surpass breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers to become the second and third leading causes of cancer-related death by 2030, respectively. Advances in screening, prevention, and treatment can change cancer incidence and/or death rates, but it will require a concerted effort by the research and healthcare communities now to effect a substantial change for the future. (C) 2014 AACR.