Origins of party formation and new party success in advanced democracies

Origins of party formation and new party success in advanced democracies
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先进民主国家政党组建的起源和新政党的成功

DOI:
10.1111/1475-6765.12013
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发表时间:
2013
影响因子:
5.3
通讯作者:
Bolleyer N
Bolleyer N
中科院分区:
法学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bolleyer N

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过去四十年来,哪些新政党进入了先进民主国家的国家议会?它们在全国性突破后的表现如何?本文认为,区分两种类型的政党组建(促进政党制度化或使其复杂化)有助于解释为什么有些政党蓬勃发展,而另一些则迅速从国家舞台上消失。由个体企业家组成的新政党不能依赖与已经组织起来的团体的联系,在突破后重新当选议会的可能性低于扎根的新政党。这一假设在新编制的数据集上得到了检验,该数据集包含 1968 年以来 17 个先进民主国家进入议会的新政党。应用多层次分析,评估影响新人在突破后重新进入议会的能力的因素。有五个因素具有显着影响,但仅在特定阶段影响政党表现:政党在突破时的选举支持及其在具有强大区域层级的系统中的运作都会增加最初连任的可能性。相比之下,独特的纲领性特征、选举制度的宽松性以及轻松获得免费广播的机会增加了政党多次连任的机会。只有地层类型显着影响这两个阶段并且影响最强烈,证实了本文中使用的理论方法。
Which new parties entered national parliaments in advanced democracies over the last four decades and how did they perform after their national breakthrough? This article argues that distinguishing two types of party formation (that facilitate or complicate party institutionalisation) helps to explain why some entries flourish, while others vanish quickly from the national stage. New parties formed by individual entrepreneurs that cannot rely on ties to already organised groups are less likely to get reelected to parliament after breakthrough than rooted newcomers. This hypothesis is tested on a newly compiled dataset of new parties that entered parliaments in 17 advanced democracies from 1968 onwards. Applying multilevel analyses, the factors that shape newcomers' capacity to reenter parliament after breakthrough are assessed. Five factors have significant effects, yet affect party performance only in particular phases: both a party's electoral support at breakthrough and its operation in a system with a strong regional tier increase the likelihood of initial reelection. In contrast, a distinct programmatic profile, the permissiveness of the electoral system and easy access to free broadcasting increase a party's chance of repeated reelection. Only formation type significantly affects both phases and does so most strongly, substantiating the theoretical approach used in this article.
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