Differentiating the effects of fine and coarse particles on daily mortality in Shanghai, China
Differentiating the effects of fine and coarse particles on daily mortality in Shanghai, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2006.12.001
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发表时间：
2007-04-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Chen, Bingheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kan, Haidong;London, Stephanie J.;Chen, Bingheng
关于环境中细颗粒物(PM2.5)和粗颗粒物(PM10-2.5)对健康影响的研究结果仍然不一致。在中国看来，PM2.5和PM10-2.5不是空气污染物的标准，它们的监测数据稀缺。目前还没有关于中国同时接触PM2.5和PM10-2.5对健康影响的流行病学研究。中国，2004年3月4日至2005年12月31日，我们在上海进行了一项时间序列研究，考察了PM2.5和PM10-2.5对每日死亡率的急性影响。采用带惩罚样条法的广义加性模型(GAM)对死亡率、空气污染和协变量数据进行分析。在本研究期间，PM2.5和PM10-2.5的平均浓度分别为56.4微克/立方米和52.3微克/立方米，PM2.5约占PM10质量的53.0%。与世界卫生组织制定的全球空气质量标准(年均10微克/立方米)和美国国家环境空气质量标准(年均15微克/立方米)相比，上海的PM2.5水平要高得多。我们发现，PM2.5与上海全死因和心肺疾病的死亡率有关。我们没有发现PM10-2.5对死亡率结果有显著影响。PM2.5浓度每增加10µg/m(3)，总死亡率、心血管死亡率和呼吸系统死亡率分别增加0.36%(95%CI 0.11%，0.61%)、0.41%(95%CI 0.01%，0.82%)和0.95%(95%CI 0.16%，1.73%)。对于PM10-2.5，影响减弱，精确度降低。我们的分析为中国提供了第一个具有统计学意义的证据，证明PM2.5对人群健康有不利影响，并加强了进一步限制上海室外空气中PM2.5水平的理由。(C)2006爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
The findings on health effects of ambient fine particles (PM2.5) and coarse particles (PM10-2.5) remain inconsistent. In China, PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 are not the criteria air pollutants, and their monitoring data are scarce. There have been no epidemiological studies of health effects of PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 simultaneously in China. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 on daily mortality in Shanghai, China from Mar. 4, 2004 to Dec. 31, 2005. We used the generalized additive model (GAM) with penalized splines to analyze the mortality, air pollution and covariate data. The average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 were 56.4 mu g/m(3) and 52.3 mu g/m(3) in our study period, and PM2.5 constituted around 53.0% of the PM10 mass. Compared with the Global Air Quality Guidelines set by World Health Organization (10 mu g/m(3) for annual mean) and U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (15 mu g/m(3) for annual mean), the PM2.5 level in Shanghai was much higher. We found that PM2.5 was associated with the death rates from all causes and from cardiorespiratory diseases in Shanghai. We did not find a significant effect of PM10-2.5 on mortality outcomes. A10 mu g/m(3) increase in the 2-day moving average (lag01) concentration of PM2.5 corresponded to 0.36% (95% Cl 0.11%, 0.61%), 0.41% (95% Cl 0.01%, 0.82%) and 0.95% (95% Cl 0.16%, 1.73%) increase of total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. For PM10-2.5, the effects were attenuated and less precise. Our analyses provide the first statistically significant evidence in China that PM2.5 has an adverse effect on population health and strengthen the rationale for further limiting levels of PM2.5 in outdoor air in Shanghai. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.