Sensitivity of the simulated CO2 concentration to inter-annual variations of its sources and sinks over East Asia
Sensitivity of the simulated CO2 concentration to inter-annual variations of its sources and sinks over East Asia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.accre.2020.03.001
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发表时间：
2019-12
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Yu Fu;H. Liao;X. Tian;Hao Gao;Z. Cai;Rui Han
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yu Fu;H. Liao;X. Tian;Hao Gao;Z. Cai;Rui Han
研究东亚地区co2源和汇的变化对co2浓度的影响，可为决策者提供碳减排信息。本文利用全球化学输运模型（GEOS-Chem）的巢状网格版本，评估了2004-2012年气象参数、陆地通量、化石燃料排放和生物质燃烧变化对东亚地区co2浓度年际变化的影响。模拟的co2浓度与世界温室气体数据中心（WDCGG） 14个地面站的观测数据以及气体观测卫星（GOSAT）卫星获取的co2柱密度（XCO2）进行了比较。对比表明，模拟的co2柱密度总体上比GOSAT高1.33 × 10−6（东亚地区年平均逐点偏差）。该模式合理地捕捉了地面站点观测到的co2浓度的时间变化，但它很可能低估了季节周期的峰谷振幅50%或更多。东亚地区模拟地表co2浓度在12 - 1 - 2月（DJF）表现出最大的年际变化。东亚地区各季节的区域平均绝对偏差（MAD）值在（4.4 ~ 5.0）× 10−6之间。模式敏感性模拟表明，地表co2浓度的年际变化主要受气象参数的变化驱动，部分受陆地通量和局部地区化石燃料排放的年际变化调制。陆地通量和化石燃料排放的变化可能占中国南方地表co2浓度年际变化的28%。峰谷振幅的年际变化取决于气象参数、陆地通量和局部地区化石燃料排放的变化。生物质燃烧排放的影响相对较弱。
The study on how the variations in CO2sources and sinks can affect the CO2concentration over East Asia would be useful to provide information for policymaker concerning carbon emission reduction. In this study, a nested-grid version of global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) is employed to assess the impacts of variations in meteorological parameters, terrestrial fluxes, fossil fuel emissions, and biomass burning on inter-annual variations of CO2concentrations over East Asia in 2004–2012. Simulated CO2concentrations are compared with observations at 14 surface stations from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) and satellite-derived CO2column density (XCO2) from the Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The comparison shows that the simulated CO2column density is generally higher than that of GOSAT by 1.33 × 10−6(annual mean point by point biases averaged over East Asia). The model reasonably captures the temporal variations of CO2concentrations observed at the ground-based stations, but it is likely to underestimate the peaks-to-troughs amplitude of the seasonal cycle by 50% or more. The simulated surface CO2concentration in East Asia exhibits the largest inter-annual variation in December-January–February (DJF). The regional mean absolute deviation (MAD) values over East Asia are within (4.4–5.0) × 10−6for all seasons. Model sensitivity simulations indicate that the inter-annual variations of surface CO2concentrations are mainly driven by variations of meteorological parameters, and partly modulated by the inter-annual variations of terrestrial fluxes and fossil fuel emissions in local regions. The variations of the terrestrial fluxes and fossil fuel emissions may account for ∼28% of the inter-annual variation of surface CO2concentration in southern China. The inter-annual variations of the peaks-to-troughs amplitude are dependent on variations of meteorological parameters, terrestrial fluxes and fossil fuel emissions in local regions. The influence of biomass burning emissions is relatively weak.